for the most part I do try and share something I'm listening to or something that something I'm listening too makes me think about...
Obviously the thing to worry about is if the 875 close or whatever is going to bring in some "Technical" Buyers... and how many. I haven't looked to see if it's a legit level for some program buying or not...
seems like a ton of people had some stops set Just at that level, and she blew back on them.....
Funny stuff...
but I'm not sure if the level is just some lame level someone came up with on their purple crayon or just some random level ...875 sounds good... it's like 800 and 3/4...
but it will be nice to worry about all weekend... But you have to play Swine flu the game...
so far level 10 3975... that was my first game....
Teranova...." This market is going to get away from you... if you think it's going to pull back and wait for you you are wrong......."
ya... what it is going to do is scare out all the people who have been chasing it.... convince them to be bearish.... then reverse..
So.... I can't find a bear.... Not one...
I read something at one point about how it's almost impossible to find a position that won't reverse on you at one point...... you sort of have this first third of wave 1... then the first half of wave 3......
if Guy can be bearish, still I can too.... Let trish go long....
Friday, May 1, 2009
stuff and more stuff
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Your hunches are usually pretty good. In your ibankcoin screed that went viral, you said that this thing will languish until the bears turn into bulls. Is this happening? Not that Terranova was a bear (maybe a possum, tho)...
How many times can we fade positive sentiment? One day won't this melt up with bears turning to bulls and new money coming in? How will we know? Is Joe smarter because of the hair tonic or in spite of it? So many questions....
I got to Level 10 on Sneeze. I'm working on "Chlamydia, the Game"... same idea, better sound effects.
One final question. Do you purposely misspell names so that your blog does not show up when they Google-search themselves?
damn, you can be funny sometimes. I want to do a post about ascending..That and I was looking at things, trying to make both cases last night.... that will probably go on all weekend.
I'm creeped out though. we want to see that break down.... I mean... every uptrend has a point of "Ascending" Before it breaks down.
The misspelling thing ... Maybe subconsciously, you know how bad I spell... I had trouble with 'Why' for like 30 minutes once as a kid. Probably the disadvantage of my right brain.
The thing with names, is that I don't care. and to spend 3 minutes looking up. Pisani or lieshman or .... whoever, offends my sense of conservation of motion/time management... One would think if I looke it up enough I could get them spelled.
we will always be able to fade positive sentiment...
the question is "How far"... Seriously... I can't find a bear... besides Kass and Guy. seems like kass stopped being 2 weeks ahead..
also... Barry is on it too.
I want to create a list of the ... Miladies that traders suffer and the simple phrases to use to reference them... you have an improved knowledge of more proper phrasing for them..
Things like Cognitive dissonance, Confirmation Bias... some other ones that I can't come up with...
I'd love if over time we could come up with a list.
Maladies .... it's what I get for ... just banging away blindly at the keyboard all morning....
fuck...
Good idea to pursue behavioral finance topics.
Here's an article with most of the terms bandied about:
http://www.investopedia.com/university/behavioral_finance/default.asp
I have fallen victim to every one of these maladies.
While I have never found individual stock insider trading of much value, the overall trend of insider selling *might* be important. And insider selling is the highest since the market top of 10/07.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=arl3VgxA0FAA&refer=home
I know of no objective look at any correlation between metrics and stock market movement, but this should not be ignored.
Also, UAW prez Getelfinger made a comment that the UAW will be looking to unload GM and Chrysler stock "quickly" in order to pay for member benefits. Weird thing to say if one were concerned for shareholder value.
hmmm... I think I have to stop using the firfox spell check..
or change the dictionary....
One of the things I've been working on..... and by work, I mean it's one of the stupid things that I've been thinking...
The wierd thing is about "How much 'they' don't want to hear it."... and that is almost as much a sentiment indicator as anything.
right now, they are all long... happy as pigs in shit to be there, and think if anyone says anything different... they are wrong..
Last week some people were able to think contrarily bearish... and now they just can't...
on the insider thing.... you have to realize how many people have their entire life savings in one company stock.....
I don't know... but it's part of sort of and indicator of how much overhead resistance there is...
and if your net retirement worth in company stock went from 3 mill to 1.5 mill... then back to 2 or so after that horror show... I'd sell some too.
The part I worry about is that we are going to make a higher low here... Probably... and ... catching it.... seems rough...
we will fight through it ... I guess.
nice list....
Thank you, good sir.
My meditation today(and I misuse the term I believe...) but my reflections were about, the biggest mistake people make are that they think they are not human, instead of accepting it, and the fallacies and weakness...
it's only through acknowledging our "humanity" or weakness, or how we all "Sell the bottom" and "buy the top"... that we can... sort of master it.
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