she just can't hold that gap..... hard to prognosticate how to trade this.... I would have liked to hold some stregnth into 11am.... Now as we downtrend, the question is when will it catch a bid..
still NFP is dangerous... and yet..... Just because people may not be willing to sell it, doesn't mean it can't make a tradable high.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
not going to hold
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22 comments:
QQQQ's showing bear flag here?
Retail short was the way to go. Good call.
maybe bet let it break the trend..
we could end on the highs...
well you messed up on the double top in the xlf...
no top on monday... which no mater how much you want to deny you didn't call ;)
you missed.
but that flag my be yours....
did I double negative that...
I'm beat. That's why I cannot figure financials out at all... the game is rigged with controlled leaks and other insanity.
BTW, if you got into short HOTT (your retail tip)... it's down 15% afterhours. I just took profits.
you are trying to win the FAZ lotto with everyone else.
banks are trading on the stress test... and apparently in the up direction.
it may be sell the bad news...
I'm with you the banks are very overvalued.
I don't do banks, dude. They trade like GLD... they are untradeable. And when the Treasury "leaks" news out ahead of time, it becomes even crazier.
The point is that when they move, everything seems to move with them and it disrupts the markets.
It's like doing brain surgery with Van Halen and Marilyn Manson blaring in the back ground at the same time.
ya... then it closed near it's highs.
listen to home depo.. diabolical to go up.
What do you mean? (I can usually pick up your cryptic comments, but I'm lost on this one.)
CSCO beat, but Q's down after hours. Interesting.
IF I traded banks, I'd be selling the news. I'm with Macke.
I just got the feeling today "Everybody was looking for a Pullback"... even dennis Kneal..
Of course he was looking for a run the past 4 days... So....
WTF
We may hit T-Lo's 950. That NFP ... Could be.. half ass..
but it sort of felt like we ripped the spine out of the bears today.
I may be with you... Time to give up...
I didn't eat all day either.....
need to walk
Just got back from my walk and listened to the podcasts. Now I got your reference to home depot. Diabolical... goes up? Hmmmm....
Would that refer to retail going up? She kinda said that it might go up from here, but too vague to be actionable. Need to look at that chart and see what it does after the pause. Is HD doing well only because EVERYthing is going up?
The Bloomberg podcast has Richard Bernstein talking about excess capacity and deflation and how this rally does not have new leadership, so it is likely a bear market rally. A new bull would have new leaders. He did not think we could maintain another credit-induced bull market. Interesting idea.
Once the melt-up settles down, what will happen? Which sectors will outperform? Banks outperforming is not consistent with a new bull, so maybe everything falls. I'm not very diabolical, I guess.
Tech has a lot of debt free companies and an essential service with relatively less capacity. Not sure if that makes sense.
there are crazy Macro cycle things that would even suggest that tech will lead for a cycle.
I havn't done the bloomberg thing..
I'll stick with my "topping" call..
mostly cause... I'd feel like a lamo to go against it.... and I have no problem being wrong....
Atta boy.
I actually agree with you, but I have
1. No mojo
2. No rational explanation
3. No common sense
4. No track record
5. No formal training
... so don't listen to me. I'm just a knucklehead with a cheap computer and a Tradestation account.
and some of this is just because of the banks...
it may take a push or 2 beyond the "stress test" to shut the fucking Armageddon bears up.
stress test doesnt' come out till tomorrow afternoon..
then the horror of the nfp
by horror.. I mean trading landmine
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