a week ago

a week ago, I pointed out to a dear friend that we were in "buy the dip"mode... and of course after that comes the top... so... I'm not sure if it has happened or if we have another little push. Checking my reads... we have the nice "Profit taking" sentiment... and general disbelief that the rally could be over.

Lets see.

fade eric bounce

well we got the fade eric bounce today....

I should have thought of that. I still say we get the retest, we can see if there is much more bounce in the market tomorrow.

so I suck....

I can't get a chart going right now... I'm just totally out of practice.

Tony E-mailed me, asked if monday we had a bottom. I said... "it doesn't feel like "we are going to crash" sentiment, there is still some optimisum. We had a nice run... everyone got very excited... and we rolled back over.

This bounce sort of felt wave 4 to me. feels like a move to 1050 on the spx is in the cards. I nice little bear trap below there would sort of feel "Right" some kind of "look out below!!!

tony asked about my indicator and how I read it... if 10 is euphoria. well we are now at a 2 or a 3. futures are up fairly significantly... I just think that like I say "futures are sentiment" that is not exactly "Negative".

I'm keeping an eye on it... I just think the market will have to test on a quarterly basis that 1050 level. or somewhere in there. It just seems silly not to try.

bla bla bla ... central banks .... Default..... what we need is a nice MEME.

of course "slow growth and a sideways economy" .... well we knew that....

hmm

Well... I was looking at sentiment... it doesn't seem like we are there.

Classicly a bounce this week as the options expire. All the Put buying over the past month.. should honestly start losing their value.

but I'm a bit rusty... but sentiment isn't quite there.

so... a bounce at the beginning of the week... well we may need to see all the options expire then after that we can get a good Woosh....

so... I'll try and keep track... I'm rusty... and very busy these days... I guess on my DSI scale... a 1 being panic a 10 being euphoria. we are at a 3.

two posts

so.... I'm watching Tuesday's low.

there was a Macke story around about "Fuck the fundies... just buy them because they are going up"....

look it up... I'd link it but WTF do I care :)

oh.... point is I think this sentiment bodes fairly negatively for stocks

.... stuff

We had a nice little sell off on good news. My stuff says that isn't a good thing. If we can keep selling we should get a significant Retest. Of course I doubt a retest of the 2008 low, of course that I say that.... seems like some form of sentiment.

Wow... didn't know I was still alive? I'm just super busy, and try and avoid this nightmare of Market people. I was doing some reading a few months ago about psycopaths, one of the lead researchers suggested that if you couldn't study them in jail, the second best place to research them would be global stock markets.

I'm trying very hard to pull off some trading while ignoring all the egocentric bullshit, the market has to offer. Not spend hours paying attention to the tickers and trying to gage sentiment through broader means. Many people breathing a sigh of relief these days.

Re: market action.... if we can keep moving up... it's all still just denial stage. I've been out in the economy for the past Months. It's not good, some solid jobs are coming back but there are some very strange things going on. Some serious worker exploitation. I guess all of that is obvious with all the Labor issues going on. It honestly feels like some of the last desperate stands by the entitled. (buy entitled, I mean the aristocracy)

the question is....

Was that Euphoria.....

I'm not watching TV....

for some reason it feels like Pre-Euphoria...

but maybe that is the good sentiment... even I'm scared to call top.

a planet unto himself

Tony said "Maybe you posting is a sentiment sign in itself"

Sure, I could hedge and say "Maybe we are in Denial"...

Or some such GAY ASS LAME MARKET HEDGING WORTHLESS BULLSHT!!! the kind of Bullshit from "Market Pros" talking out both sides of their ass. Talk that makes Washington look Sane, and respectable.

But... I think here comes Aversion.... I have no problem being wrong. But ... I've called my shot.

Of course... now I want to see the technical breakdown....

No chart But ..... Lets see the start of the pattern of Lower highs and Lower lows....

Sentiment... is now 90% there. I'm not paying enough attention to see if it's perfect... or how close it is to Perfect.... Or watching CNBC... But .... Over the weekend and friday... we still had some "Doubt" in this market.... We could still need to see One more up day... To make the last bull hit buy....

Let us see what Happens....

Long time

It's been a great year for me. Fucking Amazing if I do say so myself.

Glad I quit spending nights Butt crunching the market. You have no idea how little I want to ever spend a night watching the futures.... Which is absolutely Futile. Or Giving a shit what all the Narcisistic Lunatics that do every day, have to tell me.

I like Doug Kass, but ask yourself every time you watch CNBC.... "Do you Want to be these people" Doug is a decent guy... but it looks like he has some solid neurosis... as do 99% of these people.... Is that what you want out of your life? Don't kid yourself... as they pretend they are "Well" or that "Everything is fine" They are not well people.

Like I was saying... Get a life... It's not that hard to watch the technicals every few days. Check a few blogs for sentiment and make a bet or two....

Ok... So... it finally seems like we have fairly positive sentiment. I'm not sure it's perfect yet.... But it's time to keep an eye out for a breakdown.

Bla Bla Bla...

Since the winter, I've Rebuilt the house, Currently doing an overhall on the rest of the property, taking care of the Barns and Garden. Had a Brilliant Garden this year, which continues to produce some Amazing Vegetables. Digging up Tons of work.

This Amazing woman is Absolutely Crazy about me. Life if Fucking Amazing....

Like I said, that fucking market will suck your Soul.... and you will become one of those fucking market vampires.

well

sentiment is still fairly negative.... It's a tough call.

if you are bearish, which I'm still sketchy about sentiment wise. You want to see a flat open which sells off.

I'd still like to see a couple modest slightly up days, and for sentiment to shift.

test

we had that nice test of top setup on friday... which seems to have failed.

Now... this seems very emotional. For a "Real Correction" I would have liked to see it be a down 100 or so day. I'm a little suspect that this may not make a new low. That and sentiment is quickly negative. I'd be curious what is on CNBC.... but it's too hard for me to watch.... Maybe I'll check it out on monday.

what have we

Throwing a few flags in here... It could just be Basing.

last we checked. we had a nice bear trap... and still off this flag, there is a solid chance there is yet another bear trap.

Futures are down 5 right now. I've always said futures are sentiment.... so... it is hard to draw any conclusion from them. Up 10 off the close. now down 5.

Sentiment did shift quite aggressively today. It's at least 50/50 bull bear.

here is the daily

I hate listening to CNBC.... BLECH!!! makes me want to puke.

Lots of anticipation of bad NFP.... and again... it's a bad NFP... economic data is stinko!!

we hit some resistance.... and a nice trap could be here...

it's a tough game in here...

what have we....

This is kind of fucked up as an E-Wave count. Even as an ABC.... From my read... seems like we are close to a bit of panic. Many people took notice of the market today.

There she went

and I didn't have to watch CNBC or watch futures all night or anything......

that is what you are dealing with

Futures up big...

Morning

No chart... we had some push through on some technicals yesterday. Which means nothing to me... but it does to some people.

We are saved!!!!

Maybe not!

no chart

Sentiment wen't wonky Yesterday.

I figured it was a good day to unload some and play with some hedges.

who knows... but things just hit a level of strange by the close monday.

and now I have to watch it.

selling continues

see. I don't see any reason to sit around watching futures.

yesterday they were down 15 when I went to bed. Down 7 when I got up. and up 3 at the open.

What is the point of that?

to make your life miserable? and you are just stupid?

oh well..... obsess over the futures...

and sleep shitty!

no chart... maybe I'll look at it in the morning... but...

Test of bottom!!!

bla bla bla