Yippee

optimisum on wallstreet....

this always ends well.....

Well

can you smell it.... the blood is coming

Current CBI Reading= 11

I wonder if it will get to 13.....

It's going to take a lot to get traders off their hands.

Market closed on it's lows... always expect a bounce... but....

I get up too early... I have breakfast and I just want to take a premarket nap. It gets dangerous... I do kind of like to know what happens from 8-9am Eastern.

Again this morning, futures traders think we trade the news...

Damn

I was just going through charts.....

What a materials bloodbath today.... NASTY...
That is scary.

Besides that I laugh everytime TradingwithTK puts his hand over his camera and turns it around.
I love his 10700 call that is 600 pts away... 2 trading days. tomorrow and monday

I also think we could see limit down on the futures in the morning, which as I hear is always a buy...

In the myriad of suggestions..... I've suggested we were in a wave 4 relief rally emotionally... it is time for wave 5.

they started shooting the leaders aggressively, Ag coal transports.

Crazy to try and wash out end of the week.

we may want to hope the Vix stays in the 25-27 range tomorrow.

We are oversold but One can get more oversold.... and I think the market is going to take it's que from the Vix.... It wants to see some real panic.....

and with the ecb tight and employment tomorrow we could get it.

I managed some good trades today.... I'm getting back in sync....

Market

Melissa asked if GM could fail... or maybe it was a dream or something...

So many business models get out of sync... Auto are and have been out of sync since the Model T. The combustion engine hasn't been changed in 80 years.. there is no innovation. Cars are obscene consumer items, used to show status. I've always hoped that someone would revise that model, build cheep economical cars that do 2 things are cheep, and get you there.

There are many such out of date business models. One of which are banks which no longer want your deposits, and just want to nickle and dime you with fees.

Microsoft.... how out of date is that shit.... and I am not a Mac person.

the market is ready to get slammed tomorrow, as the last day of the week it sets up for a terrible Monday....

But it's possible with NFP and the ECB decision, that it will be a Short the rumor buy the news...

it will be interesting.

I got a couple of good trades off today.....

I did go long a nice wave 2 counter trend in a decline today.

At the bell this morning I had some charts lock up, which had me Reeling all morning.

Back to my original mid day thesis

We are gowing much lower....

This means that we will turn and go up soon...

or not

who bets we end the day at 0

Free fall

Buyers strike

we are in free fall till we get some panic

Well

Just to Waffle again....

We are going lower... Much lower..

Only buying is short covering.

I agree with TK that yesterdays buying was only new money flows coming into the market. and they were selling into it.

This market needs to go much lower.
It doesnt' care about oil any more.... It wants to go low enough to price it all in.

Stay tuned for my afternoon post about how we will rally 700 points....

Just warning you now.... and trying to be funny

I do like TK's trade about bbx. but I like it at 1.60 or 1.50

300-500

My new thesis is that we have set ourselves up for a 300-500 pt rally.

but you have questions...

• How can we rally with the notion of huge unemployment.
• how can we rally with the ECB undercutting us tomorrow.

So.... Umn... Well What if the ECB doesn't cut?

What if the NFP isn't any worse?

Also... What if oil comes down $10.

I think we are set up for a relief rally, we are very oversold...

I will not be surprised to see us Sell off a bit this morning, then turn in the face of it and rally... or we will just take a moon shot right off the bell.

Frustrated

Well, I can't say how eternaly frustrated I am with the market.....

I'm trying to get over it too....

All I can do, is what I can do, I guess.

I just feel out of sync with the market..... and it's miserable....

I feel like this market is so, damn short that it could explode to the upside.

everything is saying this market could go either way....

Way too many people talking about the 10,000 level.

Way too many people talking about the vix.

I've been burned so many time sticking my dick into the market beyond a day trade... or not burned but Nulled out on the trades.

I feel like I have the Shanks, or the Yips.....

I don't want to blog about it either.... I don't think it's helping....

I just can't filter out the noise right now.

well. there is a point when bears run out of money... When we open and close at the same level it makes me think that only day traders are playing. It's possible nobody has any money left to short the market....

I did manage one good trade today....

grr

I hate this market, so bad...... or badly....

doesn't want to go up doesn't want to go down....

Good Mojo

I knew there was a reason I had it....

Umnnn.... we need a correction... I've got huge tick data, and lots of 5th waves....

Hold your ground

...... I've looked for 3 decent rallys for the past 700 dow points. and missed them all... at best we had 100 pt rallies.

I just don't think the market believes any rally....

Emotionaly, we had a great wave 3 downtrend.....
and the last 2-3 days have felt like a wave 4 counter trend rally.... I just refuse to believe it...

Obviously in a longer trend... it's down and we will be lower.

But Yesterday I felt like I started to see some short covering ... and today....

So.... I guess I can say I think it's comming....

grr

I have caught just about every bank rally for 6 months....

now I'm sitting on my hands....

2 things that confuse me, and that I just don't get are

End of the month/quarter trading(I used to understand and play it quite well)

and

Options expiration.

Suddenly here I am looking at the market and it's a Damn mystery.

Ugh....

this is my worst nightmare.

The group I have been tracking for so long..... I get conservative on at completely the wrong time....

Alright... keep my mojo together....... have some Faith...

and the Vix just gap faded.

there is al this debate in my head about trading oil or if we are trading panic....

WTF

Dow is down 100pts....

I have a screen full of green banks....

see.... I was hoping to find a chance to load up

Wholy crap

Squawk had Schiff on!!! first time I've seen him since october.

Good

Nice to see big down futures....

I just want to see this sucker wash out so we can move on...
-70 on the dow

Ugh....

I think I'm tired of the market... and that I expected us to sell off heavily.. and we arn't all that Bearish....

I just want it over..

and that we are trading oil....

and I'm sick of saying we could get a rally if we can get some oil relief....

and what is the Mantra... if they don't scare you out they will wear you out.

Forget the market full of hate

I just hate the market right now....

I don't know what I think about the ECB cutting, I want to believe in a short term rally....

I don't want to slide down the slope of hope....

alot of stregnth after 11pm....

I don't know, I think my mojo is off.

Tops and bottoms

Wireless? Pipelines? water Utilities?

contrarian

So, nobody is talking a top in oil at 143.
Nobody is talking a "Near Term Low" in the market here.

makes me nervous.

arggg

welll Im frustrated this morning... I'll stick with my thesis of a wash out this week... Chances of some inflow of money with the start of the new quarter.

I may jump off a bridge if we muddle this week.

hmm

well.... Art says we may not get our wash out.

this trade has been on oil, that has concerned me, as a trade.

As a Function, the rallies have become thinner and thinner, and the buying seems to only be traders. With Redemtpions, and there hasn't been a decent rally, we have had 4 some odd attempts that have compleatly fizzled by 1pm.

I just don't see any stregnth. I also don't, near term see any sidline money come in...

It's just a market full of hate.

bad dollar
bad oil

Saturday

Belive it or not I hate saturday.

I don't decompress till somewhere in the afternoon.

So basicly.... Hopefully I get a good night's sleep on friday night, maybe sleep in.. or catch a 7am nap. and then I try and figure out what the hell I'm going to do.

Usually I avoid everything market related, but this morning has been different. I'm just trying to get a great handle on everything before next week. See what everyone thinks about the sell off...

What I expect

I'm expecting a huge down day on monday.. Regardless of what is going on... the market has no buyers.... We need to find them..... We should sell of hard on monday, then find them on tuesday.

we need that huge down day that precipitates the bottom......

It unnerves me..... I'm suprised how well the regionals were holding up.. then the last 2 days they have been cracking... I don't expect them to hold up...

I do suspect my calls may be very valuble when the vix spikes.. maybe more valuble than when I purchased them... so I may toss them.... Maybe not.

I just think monday will be that day that you want to puke, and tuesday will be when you want to buy.... we are just building to that.... a nice 400 pt down day to scare the shit out of people... then hold your dick and buy like mad

tipping points

what would be interesting is to be able to track on a proportional basis, when the market goes up more on an oil sell off, than it goes down with an oil increase.

more oil

oil was in a range.. as a trader you see it break the range.. so you jump on as it breaks... that is the point where... well that is where a wave 3 happens.. that wave fizzles... what is that 141.50?

I guess my point is at one point everyone going long will have gone long..

here is the oil fight from this morning

Market Inefficiancy

..... I heard today, how confused traders and money managers are. Of course they are waiting for the standard... Wash out move before jumping in....

Maybe what we will have is a few days of flat trading, then a nice decline, into a panic...

I'd still say it's more about oil... but even a drop will be looked at suspiciously.

overall I'd say this is solid capitulation buy the bears on oil...

I'll sugjest we are in a near term market inefficiancy.... I'm not saying there isn't more trouble down the line..

Supply and Demand

Great argument on Squawk this morning, Santelli and Jack Bouroudjian. I'll try and post it later.

but about oil...

My argument is more a fundamental one... If I buy an oil contract Long either a futures contract or ETF... it creates Demand for the Contract, and oil. therefore drives the price up. That I had money and turned it into oil... drives the price up.. As if I buy a futures contract in the S&P, If I put my good hard cash into something, it has to drive the price up... that is how markets work.... You can't believe in markets if you believe that somehow I buy or sell something, and it has no effect on the price....... That is ASSHATERY.

Oil can go to a million on speculation.

Head scratcher

It's friday, friday are mistake days for me... stick with the thesis.

I may take a rest day... and yet I'll probably show up at the trading desk....

How about a negative 350 rant

How about this Bear Huh!!!!!. I said 11300 months ago.... I win, I also said 12800 for that first leg in December... I also got the 1450 for the top of that rally.....even though I was off by 10 pts... and I do admit I suspected another small leg up.... But..... I'm still a rookie....

I guess I'm going to tell a story. In august I was busy... You know.... all that stuff one is busy with... and just moving some investments around..... I was suspicious, so suspicious I invested in some gold even.... Well that first leg down took gold with it...... I was a little ahead of the market... Well gold did rally back..... and that august leg down, I spent about every hour of my time doing research..... and research about stagflation, and bear markets and how they trade......

I knew that As the fed starts cutting rates we have a denial rally to new highs..... We got that in October. Then we start to decline... Usually that decline... in a Real bear will decline between 20-40%.... that total decline it will take half of it in the first part of the year, then the second in the second half of the year ... with a rally in between.

That follows Standard EWT Wave A down... Wave B Up then C down

Here is the decline since October... What this suggests though... is that we still need a wave B... followed by a wave C Delcine..... My point is Even if we Rally.... Don't trust it... maybe between now and Tuesday... we will bounce... but event then... I wouldn't trust it for longer than a couple weeks. That is scary.

This is the 2 years of the 73-73.... That first Delcine is a 20% decline, then as you notice we muddle... and in 73-74 we muddled for 6 months... IMO we are more at the end of that last red line.... For all the "Bear" markets I looked at... admitidly I didn't go back beyond this century... We declined a total of 20-40% over the first Period... but in 2 very separate Sections with a solid Muddle in between..... I don't believe that the muddle we have had between Jan and may was enough, that was only 3 months.... it is too small a muddle. We want a solid Range bound Muddle... and then a ridiculous decline that will make everyone want to shoot themselves... But with Oil shooting to Ridiculous highs, that make these highs seem silly. this took 2 years.

Then we just spend 5 years range bound between say 10k and 12k.

The same thing causes this every time... Santelli was talking about this... Someone comes up and asks you for $100, you say no way, give them $100 and they are excited... The fed is stupid, just as emotional as everyone else, after 30 years of "Free Money", because the fed won't to the hard thing and Take the money away. They have done it just like Children do with finance, where they run up credit Until they cant pay it back. That is what the fed has done. Over all for quite some time they are going to whistle past the grave yard on it, Take no responsibility(go back to my thesis on them being children).

They will, as time allows start raising rates, and instead of trying to break the back of inflation, like good Austrian economists, they will approach it like Dim-whit What ever type of economists they are.

I think over the next 3 months to year the stress is going to get to uncle ben, you can tell he has a nervous condition, and academics are not "men of Action" or they would .. do something, as the congress Beats the shit out of him. They could quite honestly look to Fed Fisher to bail us out... they don't know anything, all they know is what they are doing now Isn't working... and will look to someone else and scape goat Uncle ben.

Of course then when fisher smartly doesn't want to give out the free lollypops in 10 years, they will dump Fisher, and find some easy money guy to replace him... and the cycle will start again.

Overall... ya....... I'm just saying be Cautous.... Things are never the same... Some say things are never different.... I'd say, things are never the same, but very simaler.... The interesting thing is how things will be different. I can't believe the fed isn't being more cautious, and if when the ECB meets and oil is at 150, I wouldn't doubt if Trichet is going to call Uncle Ben's bluff...

I hope oil moderates What I can't believe is how bullish it acts... it hasn't shown any weakness since 115, that is a 30% gain... On nothing...

Tumor

After catching a few nice runs this moring... by that I mean 3. after that the market died..... No fun for anyone..

Cramer... on street signs giveing the serious face, talking about 700 more pts to the downside... Ya, I'm still talking 11,300.....

Sure I was hoping for a turn today.. and then oil broke the spine of any rally....

there are no sellers, just nobody who wants to buy stock with high oil.

I'm not an armageddon bear... People buy stock.

BTW My Calls on Big cap Regionals... are Positive.

I tell you the dollar trade right now is that the ECB will tighten..... that one is concerning me, I'd flip a coin... even give odds that it won't happen. but that doesn't make it an invalid trade from now till it does or doesn't happen.

Over all.... It's very obvious... there is no reason to play... even oil feels too volitle to play.

Trading/investing is all about risk management.... and there is absolutly no reason to get involved in this market None.....

I was just running some charts.... Good news is I don't see more than another 100pts on the SPX to go..... in this whole bear...... I could be wrong but...

I don't know

Nice spike in oil......

shove money in the matress....

I'm suprised the market is holding up at all.

oil.....

if only it could trade in the 130 range....

every damn day.... does it feel like it is the last chair in a game of musical chairs?

8 days of the spy

We have a nice looking wave 5 from yesterday into today.... Maybe another low... but we are starting to see some nice MACD divergence...on this time line... I suspect the rest of the time lines will develop over the course of the day......

*shrug* this sell off has been aggressive... and if we can get some bearishness out of oil, these levels could hold.....

The Big Regionals Look Great, consolidating working on a break out of the recent range... Ya.. maybe the big financials could catch a little bounce.... I don't know... but shit on them... Personally I'd hope for another week of selling in them, before I'd think about them. Energy acting much more bearish than the market....

My point is.... lets start looking for a turn.... Maybe I'm being optimistic

Trading with TK

I'm getting to be more of a fan, I love his indicator... apparently when the market is up it's overbought and when it's down it's oversold.... that is what I've figured out.

Energy

I'm not talking about Carbon.

There is alot of energy in the market again... We are in a Fast Money Traders market...

From what I've seen, this kind of market, which can last for 1-3 days... is a sign of a change.

Lots of volitility in the oil market. Up $6 down 3 up 3 down 3.

In all this armageddon, I'm liking the way the big cap regionals are holding up.. My calls are up big.

What I don't buy is that the fed on hold is bullish for either the Euro or commodities....

so lets see...

Flight to oil

The mad max trade is back on.... and gold is being added gold to that trade.

Finaly the market agrees with me about the big financials... they should take those out and shoot them...
but what will hapen with my regional banks?

The fed was stupid, they should not have cut the last time.... had they, then they could have cut this time... or stayed pat....

Oil is just a flight to safety... Now... I was realy wanting to buy oil last night....so as a contrary indictor???.....

Over all the market isn't interesting... I'll keep one eye open... but like everyone else... daytrade only... I have held some stock every once in a while.... and I have calls

did the Chinese finally stop buying Oil?

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. crude inventories posted an unexpected gain in the week ended June 20, bucking analysts' expectations and five consecutive weeks of declines, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Energy

Market

I'm stumped..... the Elliot waves sugjest a bounce .... a solid 2-3 day one, maybe better.

Looking at the oil chart it's looking bullish..... Yes, I still maintain the the volitility is Bearish... but Maybe we break up higher....

Once again we are in the 135-136 range on oil... The dollar is at 1.56 which sucks... says that the fed is full of Pussies.

It makes more sense to me that we are headed for 11300... maybe we get a jump back to 12500 then come back down. or maybe we jump 200 pts then come back down.

Optimisum

After I saw the banks rally in a significant way..... I'm cautiously optimistic....

I also like the action in oil today.... It just keeps giving up ground.

so maybe a couple day rally...

Broader sectors

Regionals Lead.
Insurance.
Semiconductors.
XLF-finacials

are all up...

Church of what is working now

these sectors are up.... Recreational Products, Food Retailers(up on a big win for Kroger) Precious metals, tobacco, auto's..... then

Flat are

Banks

Point being there are 5 up sectors. The musical chairs are getting thin.

The big financials

.... IMO they have a lot of distance to fall... like 20%

Trapped market

I'm still psyched to not be playing.... I've talked 11300 before.... I still think a little neutal... but I don't think the market much cares.

It's obvious to me the fed must raise rates... I can't believe how stupid they are.

With the amount of market matipulation they are into... they show their ignorance by not realizing they were stupid to cut rates so far, and have caused as many problems as they have solved.

I'm not psyched to play besides calls yet.

Gold financials .. a ramble

Gartman was in gold at 890.... Opps they were running for the exits this morning... because... Well Nobody wants gold quite yet.
I'm still mulling my target of 1.50 for the Euro dollar.....

I like to see continued pain in the Ibanks and Money centers... I think they are due for a good 20% cut...

anyone interested in C at 10?
MER at 20?

Stocks

It's straight up the Mad max Trade.... If oil can trade in the 132-133 range we could maybe trade flat.

very low energy trading.... Sellers and no buyers... seems like we are out of sellers too... Just suposition

Who knows

I'm not sure we are going to fund much support here... Market is ready to go lower.....

we could see a nice little relief rally... heck maybe we can trade sideways till the FOMC...

I'm tempted to watch tennis all day.

JPMORGAN to buy bank

They said they were looking at
STI WAMU.

I say they merge and buy JMP.

I don't post on the indexes much anymore

Umn... I'd say the open on monday will be down... Unless oil is down $10

hardest part of the market is that it's all trading on oil... for the most part.

134.77 is the close on oil

My thesis for a very long time is that if we want a great Rally in the stock market, if we could get

JPM, LEH, C, MER, GS...... To all go out of buisness, with all their Market Tomfoolery, and asshatery, and Lying Thieving ways.....

we could get a 2k pt rally...

Crooked Bastards

rally?

well I think the only rally to hope for is for a short covering rally into the close

We shall see...

Isralies and oil

We should nuke the isralies for trying to drive oil up.

and I want opec to come out and cream the market

oil

Oil traded up over $1.00 driving the market down...

now it has given back that dollar + some

135.60 oil

Fucking oil shit...

rally

Lets just forget that rally for a bit...

There was a bearish move in oil that got us to rally... now the market is back to

"THE JITTERZ!!!!"

fortunatly I can get that DUG going again...

Also

I cleared out of my Dug position... Made good money....

I may restart it later... but I'm not paying good atttentio to it..

but.... you know the dip buyers... they seem like they want to come in.

suspecting the reversal

which has developed as I posted this

(UPDATE) I then had to vacate that position. Oil is trying to rally

Trading with TK

Mid day observation
By TK
Things have calmed down
from that mini panic earlier. This is some game we chosen. Anyway we are
oversold pretty good, and I would not be surprised to see a rally develope. Like
a roller coaster. Talk to you later

I agree.. watch for a rally, the indexes aren't as week as I'd suspected

and it made me laugh wen he said "this is some game we've chosen(I corrected the gramer)

go STT

*DJ State Street Boosts Qtrly Div To 24c From 23c >STT

Boogyman Loses Again

Yep... I don't believe in God, or Boogymen...

Caviot, In the shower this morning I wanted to puke.

I suspect a solid pull back... but the uptrend has been super strong.... and this will kill the indexes if the financials start correcting

Generals Fighting the Last war

In the housing crash of 1990 it was the Savings and loans that had all the bad loans to home ownerns, This time.... It's not the Regionals that have that Pain...

Unless the bank was stupid enough to either Write Interest only loans(Zion), or own the Myriad of Zombi like securies...

Mostly those are in Funds, and i-banks.... and Other places looking for marginal "Safe Gains"

Ya no quote today

Have to wait for the market to stabilize this morning.....

the worst part about posting a trade is that I feel like I have to follow up. So here I am..... Trying to not have my dick cut off.

Like a good gambler, the secret is to reduce the amount of gambling you are doing.... Don't risk too much trying to get .04 out of a stock.

and I feel like I have to tell people how I trade. I will trade 1-4 stocks in a day, I play live trend line support, and use EWS as an artful chartastrolgy.

fuck... This is too hard.... +/- after taking half my profits in RF yesterday after that big run.... The other half I stopped out today(not that I ran a stop, but that it kicked back hard, and I managed to get out Even roughly(not true, but when you make $50, who gives a shit)

The market is funky this morning.... the indexes want to break... but the Regionals are putting up one hell of a fight...... Feel like they are getting their Dicks back

I cleared out of my dug position, and am looking to restart it......

boogeyman

The boogeyman has me this morning.....

but... Like a Great Orgasmic Bull charge into "Stocks going to the Moon"

I guess the boogeyman trade has it's own Grimm Reaper Orgasm.

and some boogyman futures too.

but I'll watch for downside today... we are definatly on the edge here.

06/19/2008 14:32 OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Closes $4.88 Lower At $131.80/Bbl

I know I'm playing with fire.... but .... I just think that the decent regionals will make it.... The Shitty No doc loans were securitiezed..... that was the point of them, securitize and sell them off in order to get higher yield in the form of a Psudo Bond.

It is possible they will be merged out of existance as cramer says.... Especialy if the stocks go to 2.

The systemic risk of a moneyline bank or Ibank is segnificant... but the Psycological risk of a Regional bank failure is by far worse....

Speaking of that type of Trade... Gold went crazy this morning... I'm not sure why...

BBT

*DJ BB&T Reaffirms First-Qtr Div Comment

*DJ BB&T Corp: Mgmt Sees Some Increase In Cash Dividend During 2008 >BBT

There is some smart managment..... WTF would you wait till now to cut dividend....

This is directed at you FIFTH THIRD....

and then to have to raise 2 Billion.... WTF.

I mean Key Bank is stupid, and have always had trouble with Deposits, and being Capitalized.....

Today's tape

...... What I like about today's tape....

I like to see the big banks finaly taking it in the ass. Losing 3-4%... and just taking it like they are headed to the Teens.... Like they should be.....

RF regions financial

I'm Playing with fire... this is a 3 day 15 minute chart...

5x volume yesterday, slightly lower low today... seems to have found some stability. The down side correction shows 2 legs down. It's about to break the downtrend(wave 5 down trend, not the overall downtrend). MACD divergence, on about every time frame..... It seems good for a bounce... if not a near term low.......

NOW They have not cut the Dividend, it's payable After next Week.... Every posiblity they will monday or tuesday.... But it seems Cooked in... But that doesn't mean that it won't take more pain.
I will be temtped to hold this into the close, if it can hang on into the close.... and if oil can break 132.... that will make it much easier to sleep.

Super Scarry Trade!!!!!!!!

Update

So........This market is still unstable, and Oil Has to Crack... but the oil stocks feel nasty.... Selling off harder than financials.

I picked up some calls... that was tough.....

Emotionaly I feel like the market had that wave 3 fear... I alittle wave 4 optimisum... and the final wave 5 Boogyman today.......

Of course maybe everything is good when Buckaroo banzai is on....

Buckaroo Banzai: "Hey, hey, hey — don't be mean. No need to be mean. 'Cause, remember: no matter where you go...

..... there you are"

There is some good news

Oil drops as China says it will raise fuel prices

I was trading around and didn't get why my dug was working and everything else had stalled...

Mad Max Trade

On the rally this morning I started some short index positions. I could see we were setting up for some nastyness. reflex rally. Time to find some buyers in the market.....

I think they are lower.

We could find those buyers monday or tuesday of next week.

Capitulation

Today we ought to be able to see first that Booker T. Washington faced a situation in which he was seeking desperately for a way out, and he could see no way out except capitulation.

C. L. R. James.

So.... I'm beat.... where is the Euro dollar? 1.45, Where is oil $135, How are the markets, oil stocks going up financials going down....

Same Trade Different day.

This just isn't interesting.... I suspect a bit of a leg down in the next 3 days. And I'm not very interested till oil gets below $130

Maybe I'll get some balls and buy some calls in the financials today. But honestly none of this is interesting. I know I'm totaly at capitulation... Maybe that is a good sign for the market.... Honestly I was looking at a vacation... the one I'll never take....

Oil

30 minutes of floor trading left.

I'd like to hope that oil is going to give it up.. but yet again, it's closer to the top than breaking support. Even with a sell off, it's going to take 115 for the market to get optimistic.

I think we are headed to a dollar/Oil Fed Crisis.

I wanted to post about this but WFT is the fed doing, after talking the dollar up. then having the ECB cut their legs off.... then they put the full court press to get it back up.... Then they get that story out about how they really aren't going to cut.....

does it show that they are completely confused? and that they have no idea what they are doing. I think oil could go to $150 and the fed will be forced to cut....... Which is the stupidest thing in the world.....

I don't know, I'm just into how Stupid things are...

and the regional banks.... Trading at early 1990's levels.... It's crazy... either there is something to how the uptick rule works, or we are in a lot of trouble...... and oil will be that Mast sticking up above the water on the sinking ship.

and if financials can't find some support, neither will the market.....

Maybe my feelings on this are a contrary indicator... but the market is making me very nervous.

Morning

Oil is looking rough...... I'd watch for it to break the 132 level, and could find the 125 level.

I also feel like the morning boogyman is gone...

and I love stocks trading 5% intraday swings........

WTF

Good to not own stock... My aggressive trading strategies continue to pay off... and my decision to not own stock into the close yesterday... was super smart.... have to watch the inner contrarian. I do have some calls that will be worthless... Maybe .

UPDATE: Fifth Third Plans $1 Billion Capital Raise, To Slash Dividend

there will be an upside trade here, as this stock will be demolished this morning.... and then should bounce....

WTF..... If you needed to do this... why not do it a month ago... or 2. just shows how stupid bankers are.

good news bad news

It is an ill thing to be the first to bring news of ill.

Aeschylus


I'm having a hard time believing that there is more bad news in the Regional banks... course I've been saying it for weeks...

We had a low on Friday? and we had a pull back on Tuesday.... but not to a lower low. We had huge disbelief in the rally on Monday. Maximum pessimism on Friday, which rebuilt again today.... The regionals are universally Hated. They are trading at Unprecedented Inflation adjusted values. Based on limited bad news, they are at 1/4 their 2006 value.

I'm not talking about the money center or Ibanks... they have much lower to go.

The fact Even i'm nervous about them, makes me think there could be some upside.

good news with goldman was bad news... maybe bad news with morgan is cooked in....

Sell the rumor buy the news.

I see that a lot of traders are having a tough time... and yesterday I'll admit was super aggressive.. When even the day traders are having a hard time..... It makes me think the trend is going to reverse..

Well... been a long day.

some of this volatility is insane.....

I picked up some calls... just some small tradable positions I'm thinking as far as momentum tomorrow will be an important day....

Was today consolidation, or was it the beginning of another downtrend....

xlf

one more high after this... but probably into the close.... which makes it fairly stupid forecasting.

xlf

there is my high..... by my count 2 more highs and 1 more higher low....

but it is all about oil... so if it breaks hard, it will have a hard time sustaining itself

First on CNBC

A doctor in surgery, thought "If only we could put patient files on the Internet, and access patient records that way. That would revolutionize our industry"

Wholly crap..... where do you get these guys. Johnny come lately.

What a Genious, thank god when I'm under the knife these guys have it in their hands.

"If only we had something Round, and could put it under vehicles, to help them move better, instead of dragging our carts around....."

"You know, For kids"

chart pattern

this is the xlf today. The way I read it... to start off this is a 5 wave pattern. It's actually the same pattern 3 times... which builds the same pattern, Roughly 3 higher highs(ya, there are only 2), and 2 lows. Which is why I don't trust this has broken down yet, a somewhat similar pattern in Oil....
But, as I read it, this is not a healthy bull pattern, it's bearish. Biggest move being wave 1, then fading moves as it progresses.

currently this move is about to make a lower low....after a lower high.. the fact that it couldn't even complete itself in the 5 wave pattern, goes to show added weakness.

I'm just trying to point out a great chart pattern to keep an eye out for. series of 3 highs, 2 higher lows, the last 2 highs being only slightly higher that each-other.... very ripe for major corrections.

Oil just dropped to a Record cheep 133...

If we can get a move to 130. I think the market would like it.....as it breaks to a lower low and a lower high.

I've ben mentioning the Marine transports... As a trade I think they still have some room to move... I'd also say watch for a second leg down..... but if oil breaks... they will rocket...

oil

the acumulation, matches very solidly the distribution in oil over the last 30 minutes

some great volitility, great action..... feels like some nice acumulation/consolidation in the upmove.... Hopefully a higher low.... I say as I talk my book

Mad Max trade

Market is very nervous. Dip buying on oil continues

Oil

I'd be optimistic if we could get oil down below 130.



Sharon on cnbc Finlay realized that volatility means the market is toppy..

Hi blog

As we must account for every idle word, so must we account for every idle silence.

Benjamin Franklin

Morning... Upward momentum continues... apparently.....

Why regionals

I'm trying to convince myself here...... I lightened up today..... I'm much happier to be trading around in these... and I wasn't impressed by the close.. that and oil.... but you aren't going to see the shorts with their pants down much more in oil.

Say you are a Waiter and you are speculating in housing.... you are going to go to CFC or one of the now defunct Mortgage finance companies, where the interview process is done buy someone who is basically a glorified telemarketer....
My point is, 80-90% of the bad loans were securitized, and of the remainder 50% didn't go to the big banks....

Well what about the builder loans......

most of those loans are asset backed, Meaning for the cost of the land... yes the land isn't worth as much, but probably 70%....
When the homies build a house, they usually treat the contractors like creditors, and usually they only get a 50% deposit... Even if the loan covered the whole thing....70% is recoverable....

It's just not that bad for them..... There will be some defaults in Genuine people who default because the home just isn't worth what it was when they purchased it.... But Those people think in 2 years it will be..... so... they aren't defaulting in Droves.

Oil

I've been busy... and umn.... Oil had a huge correction back to 133... it now is taking a solid $1.40 bounce/correction

I'll expect us to be strong into the close..

leaders and laggards

I didn't mention that the dry shippers were looking good chart wise...

I'd be carefull, there is exposure to oil, and a slowing global economy

basic resources oil and financials... how is that for a mix

Tired

what I'm sick of... is trading the market based on crude prices..... it's just ridiculous.... If I wanted to trade crude... I'd trade crude...

Mad Max Trade

the monday morning story again is oil... Market will want to see it retreat before it can move higher.

Some Elliot waves

Here is our downtrend.... Very nice 5 wave move.
What is funny is that I look at the candles... I see that big green one, and look fondly on the day oil was $122 and reversed to $137 giving us the big green one and the big red one..... Oh! Sigh!! those were the days.
When you realize that what we could have is an ABC correction in a Bullish market.... hey!!! That's not right!!!! but it is what those candles show...

Here is a hypothetical though..... that we get a little retracement, then one more new low..... and we are then in a larger downtrend, and have a nice Bearish set of impulse waves..... We will see... But even if we do get one more low... We will have a follow up(upmove) Correction... I'd say if oil goes to 150 this week we will see this... Then Oil will correct... maybe back to the 120's or 130's... then it will resume it's march higher, and the market lower...

AAPL

As, a regular reader would know, I play very neutral on Tech....

I kid you not, if I short it on the NASDAQ it goes higher....... So I just don't have any skin in the game.

AAPL broke 171 support, Technical that is a now a wave 3 move in a downtrend from the highs.

Also, I'm not.. into all the wall-street bullshit, this stuff about Steve jobs is a bear run in the stock, Probably. But I did mention to someone that I agree with the opinion that technically AAPL topped out at the 3G news.

If you read, many of my market Thesis, Tops and bottoms come when "Everyone is in the trade" one way or another... Either they have scared everyone out, or everyone is in.... I always imagine some FNG seeing the 3g phone being announced and going "Oh! apple has a new phone, I should invest, that will be big." Not realizing that he is the last pig to that Trough.

that price action is very weak, and not being able to make a new high on the 3g news.... Everyone who is in that stock, is in..... So.... It gets to correct... Till the wall streeters figure it's a good value again... 150 130 somewhere in there.

This is the same as I feel about the regionals... if you are selling, you would have done it today... The boogyman was out hard. Besides day traders that are out for a morning short... I'm doubting the movement.

My point is... they are going to shake out aapl, and that Jobs is sick, is just the current reason.

wow

Tim russert Died.... that is sad... I didn't like his show, but.... good guy...

People need exercise...

oh, and I own some stock going into the close...

well

We had a nice wash out of all the regionals, and they are mostly priced for a dividend cut...

I'm not sure how they will close...

but.... Oil is looking weak... Maybe some optimisum if we can get below 134

wall street bullshit

Key bank cut their dividend...... Goes from 16 to 11.

Goldman comes out and says they think Fifth Third will cut their dividend.

goes from 16-11....

Now... wouldn't an actual cut, trump the supposition of a cut?