Hear, learn....

What is the phrase:
We write what we want to hear, and teach the things we need to learn....

futures back to +80

I hate the futures market...

can't it be down 200?

no idea why I'm such a sissy these days...

Technicals trading

.... As much as I talk about possible market direction....

this is what I sort of see through the "Chart-Astrology".

I think the market is more like a large Semi-truck.. and sometimes I liken it to a Swimming pool(more people in the pool, higher the level, more people getting out or in at the same time, higher the waves).

But Like a Truck, all I know is this... I can see it Slowing To Turn.... once it's in a turn it can stop and go the opposite direction... or it can continue the turn... then it starts accelerating.... it order to turn again, it has to slow down.........

currently the market has been moving faster to the downside... The question I'll try and scratch my head about today is.... did we stopped to turn at the close? or did we Just slow down to Shift into a higher Gear. Regardless... we will still have to slow a little to make the turn... probably.

From what I saw yesterday, there was a slight head fake "slight accumulation"... Which is one of those sucker moves I always fall for and put too much money at risk.... we will see how much follow through we get today.... We had a Down 50 pts from the highs, then a down 100 pts, then a down 200 points move... with pull backs in between...

what I'll look for is a down 50 move, then a down 25... and all of that could happen between now and noon.... or we have a Down 300 day.

Interesting thing, is there probably isn't' that much short interest, stupid money in the market right now to create much of a short covering rally.

to go back to the "Pool" theme... the question is how many people are getting out of, or into the pool.... and how much of the waves are people just "splashing" around.

Generals fighting the last war.

...... The saying in the military is that the generals are always fighting the last war... We saw that with Iraq this time, assuming that it would be just a few month pushover.

...... Economists say that "History doesn't' repeat itself, but it does Rhyme."

Even assuming the mistakes with the kurds, Dubja... and Cheney were even fighting that war, by assuming that if we supported iraq, the people would topple the regime, which they may have in 1990... not so much in 2003.

... But I digress...

the conversation with the Admirable Grudge... Who very much could be right, we could just pop up back to 2007 levels like we did after the 1990 recession.

This is a possibility, but I'm thinking not a probability.

I offer these things....

• 1990 was both a consumer lead, and Housing Recession... BUT greenspan and most economists..(who are usually wrong), and rick Santelli are talking a period of time that will be similar to the 1930's/1970's... What this would hint at is that the Recovery is going to come off like a foul ball.... Also instead of a 2 quarter recession... without the stimulus package we are probably looking at a 4 quarter recession... Giving us a slight pop in the middle... this gives some credence to people who have a near term(this and next month) target of 1430 or so.
• Brian Westbury, who draws 1970's parallels.... Using that model... Which he says.. the loose money of the 60's(fill in 2000's), lead to the inflation and the series of recessions of the 70's-83... so maybe we can say that this could "Rhyme" with the market pull back in the 1969-1971 period.... It may Rhyme.
• Crisis trade... The 1990 recession Crisis was the S&L, crisis... and what happens is we have a "Credit crunch" which leads to a recession.... after the crisis, the market Spikes because the crisis is over, and the theory is that things are fine.. Until 6 months or a year later we start losing jobs..... This happened but in August... And the weird thing is that it has happened AGAIN... which furthers the possibility that this new credit crunch, will create another "economic" slowdown in 6 months... think October November....
• I've been a believer in a pop into the 1450's for a long time... and still do... but maybe we pull back to 12200 or 12300 or 12000 or 11300. and then Bounce Back up..... All the high commodities prices do have an upward bias on the market, but a downward bias on the economy.... Same thing for inflation, Stocks with increased inflation have an upward bias, but a downward bias on the Economy... Think stagflation.
• Money..... We need it..... We need Credit. Ask.... Where are we going to get it. Imagine Europe and Asia as our former Bank... Why would they loan us money, after we have been defaulting on what we have already borrowed, at best we can hope for some "Reorganizing our Debt" and they won't foreclose... The question is... Where do we get the next line of Credit..... Americana's don't save... why would you when you get negative return on bonds, and savings.... so, we can; get Americans to save by increasing the Fed funds Rate, or increase the reserve ratio to 20/1, or just flat print money... or Helo drop.... This market goes nowhere till we find some new Cash.... maybe more regional banks, maybe more Credit Unions.

So, in a good Secular bear, Moving down 20% in the first move, then a 10% bounce... then another 20% drop.... roughly a 40% drop in the indexes... is... probable... maybe we drop the 15% we did, bounce 10%, then pull back to a Net 20%, then bounce 10 again... Then back down.

I'm wondering if the bounce from the stimulus package will be more muted.. since traders aren't Net Stupid, and know that it will give a small bounce to earnings... in Q3.

Let me just Qualify.... this is all Speculation.... these are just thoughts.... I don't Know.... I'm just throwing out a million possibilities.... I think the secret is to wade through all the posiblities, and look at what is happening and figure out what model it's following.....

Seems aparent that the "Stagflation" trade is "in the money" untill commodites get cheaper and/or the dollar gets stronger.

Morning,

I stayed up too late....

Futures had me nervous up 50... then I realized how high Fair value was.

now they are up 70....Ugh...

No worries even up 150 or so, I break even... in case you are worried about me.

it would take Dubja to come out and say they are going to buy every house in the country to do that.

Feels like the oil is driving the futures up.....Stagflation trade

1.58 on the Peso/Euro(dollar/euro).

futures make me think that someone knows something about GDP or Initial Claims that I don't'.

GDP expectations should be low. ... Initial claims may be a little better than expectations....

gay for cramer

I can't believe that there is still all this Gayness for cramer...... Personally I don't get it. he is just a guy, I don't even watch his show. I think 'real money' is a good book for a start in investing. I agree he can be a "Chucklehead".....
But as people get involved in that gayness... ask yourself.... "why are you gay for cramer".... and people expect him to be right all the time.... if someone can be right 10% of the time, and have good risk management. you can make money. so Props to anyone who is right more than that.... But One possible mistake.... Sure... Foolishly he is feeding the Trolls.

I keep finding blogs with a shitload of someone being Completely off the handle at him... It just... There are 50 Idiots on T.V. All Damn day, who are Butt Fucking Stupid.... Why pick cramer... Who does make a good point or 2.... Once in a while.

When I read the "Gayness", I just stop reading.... I only have so much time to read things.... or to listen to Analysts, or advisers.... I don't have time to read peoples incessant rantings about what an ass he is.... I don't know why, someone would waist their time going at it like he is their little bitch.

*shrug*

Think I have enough trend lines on that chart.... We broke out of both the downtrend, the 3rd wave channel......showed a little double bottom..... made a higher high......

Name it chart wise and it's not good for a guy net short...... BUT.......

I don't buy it..... thost upticks are not healthy... we show more distribution than acumulation... there is some short covering, some manipulative buying... Thise impuls moves are less and less healthy for a bull thesis... Weak volume..... You name it ...

I've seen this game before, and kicked myself when things said "Go Short" and Quarter end kept me sidlined... We sold off and I only caught a small bit of it, since I didn't have the stones...... So.... In it To win it.

and 132.75.... how rough do you think that is as a target...

I've also Just sworn off anything that doesn't look like a Good Healthy Acumulation or distribution pattern.

Homeowners Plan Demonstration

Homeowners Plan Demonstration at NYC Offices of Bear Stearns, JPMorgan Chase to Protest Government Bailout!

From democracy now!



That is sweet..... Billions of Taxpayer Dollars to bail out Bear... Not a Fucking Nickle to home owners..... Freemarket Capitalisum at it's finest!!

it's a Rigged game kids.... Never Forget it.

Chart-Astrology

Looks to me like the sellers can't find buyers...

seems like more buyers than sellers.... but the sellers are selling 2 ticks lower than the buyars are buying....

There isn't enough buying to offset the weak ass selling.

I know you don't believe me, but I made some changes to the trade channel.. and we are still inside it.... I know I should have done it earlier...

but So far.. this downtrend overall looks like it may be weakening.. if it's not over already...

There is a Bull chance that there will be no 5th wave to this trend... We have some bad data tomorrow possibly GDP... I think PPI is comming up.

I changed the green trade channel.... it's not valid in any way besides holding this morning's downtrend and parallel and in line with the closing highs.... the red one that you can barely see is umn the overall trend.... I'd love to see this downtrend accelerate. UMN...... The volume as I see it, is a little more convincing than yesterday.

2day spy ....

hoping we stay in that green trade channel... it's not that agressive for a sell off. I'm feeling 1330 for this wave. Not sure what that is for the SPY... we could have more downside... but.. there are some banks that are looking jucey.

The dollar remains weak... 10 year strong. Commodities back up.... YE OLD INFLATION TRADE returns!!!!

Still holding the trade channel. I took some profit this morning... I'm a total chickenshit.... but with more money in my pocket.

I hate to agree with the libertarian contingents... but the reason we have so much financial fuck up is because we keep extending the moral hazard of bailing out the "financial institutions"... at one point the counter-party risk will be large enough that we can just allow every publicly held company to get money from the discount window.

Calling it moral hazard is weak.... The better way to verbalize it would be to at least start talking about the reason we get into these problem is because of all the past moral hazard from the banks, oh... and other financial institutions..... and how they don't live in the free market with the rest of us.

But how else do you enforce an Society of Aristocrats, but by allowing them to live by different rules than non aristocrats..... They are special, and need different treatment.... Maybe all companies in this country need their own printing press.

2 days of the spy

a bit of a green 3rd wave trade channel for us.

Finaly breaking out of the tren.... Should be Wave 3....

This Ticker isn't as bearish as it was and not compleatly Bullish....

One could say neutral.....

this could sugjest some range bound action... Though I'm Currently bearish..... I'm not psyched about this market either way.....

hmmm

Ugh... Pummeling...

My techincals say stick around short.....

I also have this theory that traders are just a little smarter than I think they are....

They have tried to bullshit a rally... it's time for it to come back... Technicals say so.. and if the traders are a little smarter.. they know the valuations are wrong... and this shouldn't have been a Crisis trade, recession trade with a Crisis....

and I may lose money!!

2 days SPY again

Ok.... Wave 1 yesderday till the morning. Wave 2 correction.... Strong correction... 10am-2pm.

Wave 3 starting......

I'm toying with staying away from anything but my Crazy TechnicalAnalysis.....

BTW... this is still within that broad trend.

Inflation deflation

... I realy have........ decided

If what you can buy with your money after sell it is less.... I.E. INFLATION. home worth 40K cheesburgers Vs 30K after inflation.

or if your home is worth less in Dollars..... I.E. Deflation you can only buy 30K Cheesburgers Vs 40K.....

There is no Difference.... It's a confidence game.....

and it's why nobody saves.

have I mentioned

how much I need a vacation...

very sick of the market....... I want to start hitting my screen.

2 day spy...

38.2 Retrace... 5 wave move.....
Faiding wedge pattern... which isn't fair since its developed and started moving down as I was posting this.....

That is the 1440 support.. it's also some trend lines down there.... third time at it should break

well

I'm hoping for a bit of a pull back here....

umn. WTF is santelli

2 day chart of the Spy

we broke the trend... and we... I believe will get a 4th wave correction... end of the day

5th wave Rally... Possibly a few hundred point correction tomorrow.... I can't imagine a news item that would take the futures down tomorrow....

Sorry, don't know how to trade it.....

I sure would like to see a healthy pull back here....

Still possible that we will see shorts comming out of the market like crazy tomorrow...