Trader talk. Steve Liesman said "as a trader, what you do is make your best guess a go with it."

IMHO, that is the last thing you do as a trader.

Most the time, you evaluate risk, and take the least risky bets.... "The downside is less risky than the upside." and you make your trade.

or on the short side "the upside is less risky than the downside" and you go short.

But you do every thing you can, to not guess.

and if your guessing, you keep your powder dry, and wait for a better opportunity. I have way more opportunities than I have available cash.