Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Can I go back to bed yet
or if I do will it pop back another 10spx this was weird and kind of hot.
...but I guess the argument might be that due to game theory, the risk reward is to be short because on the small small chance this closes below support, all hell will break loose next week...
or if I do will it pop back another 10spx
this was weird and kind of hot.
Prolly not worth trading here, especially if you're sick. Maybe will bounce on support 1080, but likely will chop in small range today.
ReplyDeleteGet better soon... if you have a fever and it lasts more than a few days, get tested for the pig flu and get some Tamiflu, bud.
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume it was the fever affecting your comment on the photo.
look for the 50% retrace from that last swing high(yesterday's close)
ReplyDeleteto the 108. then for it to come back.
or something else.
I did say "Kind of", about the photo.
Looks like it got rejected at the 38%... like I said too much chop to trade here.
ReplyDeleteSeems like the game is up. time to close below the Vic 2b
ReplyDeleteWould be exciting to see, odds are support holds.
ReplyDeletethe jig is up... nobody wants to sell because it's friday, but nobody wants to buy because it's in the cards.
ReplyDeleteneed to find buyers and they are lower.
so we drift
T.Lo's mp3 about predicting the future...
ReplyDeleteThere's a 99% chance we close above 108.19 Bulls have way way more at stake and they will defend that level (yesterday's open).
...but I guess the argument might be that due to game theory, the risk reward is to be short because on the small small chance this closes below support, all hell will break loose next week...
ReplyDeleteI'm not saying that, just thinking about it.
Since I'm short higher, I'm not going to sweat it.
ReplyDeleteit's academic for me.
we could have a pennant forming. is the short term swings.
but if I want to game it, it's smarter to get involved monday at the open than it is here.
Agree. I have no SPY and closed some shorts near the day low. They call it *support* for a reason.
ReplyDeleteIf SPY got up to the 50% retrace like you said, that might be a decent short entry for some banks, etc...
are you ready to concede your loss yet?
ReplyDeleteI only say this to curse myself.
safer to wait till monday to short it...
but watch the market make me chase it on monday....
and I take the crap shoot and see if it will pay off and we trend.
Hour to go...
ReplyDeleteIf you're sure or feeling lucky, get a few shares of SDS; it's prolly not a bad bet. Like i said, the risk/ reward on game theory favors being short.
Esp if dollar closes on high today.
this reminds me of the friday you and I sat around bullshiting about 87.65 in may.
ReplyDeletein the seminar last week my bet was on 9999.99 close.
ReplyDeletethe "Bermuda triangles" are resolving down now. that is bearish.
ReplyDeleteit would be interesting if the UUP gets above the vic2B on monday before the open and starts shooting up.
alright Fuck you 108.20 is my out!
ReplyDeleteUUP at 22.44 is the most bearish thing for SPY, but yes, a lot desc triangles.
ReplyDeleteAs I type, UUP is down 22.41
In 6 months we'll be debating about SPY 200 at *support* or a vic 2b failure
ReplyDeletelol
BTW, NAV is about to die,
ReplyDeleteI may hold this short over the weekend.
Pisani what a fucking liar. "Flat for the week"
ReplyDeletewhat fucking market was he watching.
market opened at 1090 and we are at 1080, and the high was 1100.
cognitive what?
You win.
ReplyDeleteGood call.
Looks bearish for Monday.
*finger*
ReplyDeleteJust playing. I must be feeling a little better, but I have to do some fall yard work after the close.
Can dollar stage rally two days in a row? It has not done that for a while and that will be the question for Monday.
ReplyDeleteget ready for wave 3. Bearish "Cloud cover" on the candlesticks.
ReplyDeletewhich is follow through/confirmation for the "shooting star"
I'd love to see the UUP go Vic 2b
yesterday it was bullish engulfing, now it's another outside reversal...
ReplyDeleteMy guess is this is some sign of a top. Lots of indecision and chop...
... or it's a bull flag (lol).
proof is in the pull back
ReplyDeleteclock is ticking though...
GD breakout players
108.07
ReplyDeletelol
UUP 22.44
My prediction:
ReplyDeleteSome sheeple will bid this up after hours, then we open much lower on Monday when the adults come back into the pool.
Positions: short GDX, short NAV
so to be official:
ReplyDeletethe close was 1079.60
The intraday high september-1080.15
1071.66 Was the Closing high.
so official Vic2b is a close below 1071.66
or 107.32 which was the closing high.
We have a lower low... and await confirmation of the lower high.