Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
FWIW, I've been doing some pairs-trades with longs and shorts. Since I thoguht we were hitting a top but also this sucker could fly, I figured this would be a reasonably conservative tack.
For example:
Long BMC and short INTU
Long DD and short BG
Now I'm I'm looking at short BCR, this guy looks like it could get hurt here. Long SYK in this sector
Good question. This "feels" like it's rolling over.
I bet it closes right at 87.35 because I'm cynical and that's the point everyone is talking about. Diabolically, it's the level at which I wouldn't know what to do.
The market needs a rest (Mackie just said it!) but the rally is "healthy" above 85.30
Ok... of Wave 5 of Wave 5... Which may have Topped out the market.
at 11am we started wave 1 of a downtrend... at 12:57 we started a wave 2 counter-trend rally... Maybe. wave 2 will be the right shoulder of my head and shoulders.
I would have felt better about one more high.
Here comes your one more high.
ReplyDeletesrs... but I'm not responsible if you lose money...
ReplyDeleteVery odd. I had just bought SRS at 11:59 for 22.359999.
ReplyDeleteI was watching the same thing when IYR did not confirm the SPY high. But XLF did, so we'll see.
10:59, I meant.
ReplyDeleteyou should have waited for it to break that downtrend...
ReplyDeleteThough the indexes look to weaken..
but I picked it up at 22.10
You know how I like to knife catch...
There is still a chance of an afternoon retest of the high.
I've never been good at getting the bottom-tick.
ReplyDeletewell.. so then you look for the retest...
ReplyDeleteroughly use it for a stop...
I'm not psyched about a new high after 11...
but Kudlow and everyone almost orgasmed on the air...
I just want to see this fucker fade......
ReplyDeleteFWIW, I've been doing some pairs-trades with longs and shorts. Since I thoguht we were hitting a top but also this sucker could fly, I figured this would be a reasonably conservative tack.
ReplyDeleteFor example:
Long BMC and short INTU
Long DD and short BG
Now I'm I'm looking at short BCR, this guy looks like it could get hurt here. Long SYK in this sector
there is a point where one can take some gain... then if you want to redeploy.... you can do it later
ReplyDeleteI don't know what size you are playing...
Just say "good trade" on half or something.....
Thx. I'm small numbers today so it's riding, may add some or SPG.
ReplyDeleteBCR working
Also looking at HRB if (when) fins roll-over. XLF has not hit the 4/17 high so I'm being careful.
as a downtrend... we are looking for wave 2 retrace here.
ReplyDeleteDoes the EWT stuff help you...
you seemed like you were catching on over the past few days..
What time frame?
ReplyDeleteewt always looks spot-on after the fact, but it's never helped me make a trade (yet).
Wish I woulda shorted SPG. Won't chase. Flag forming.
we just had a momentum low followed by a secondary... Should get some kind of rebound...
ReplyDeleteso ... what do you think... did that feel like a "Top" on a head fake?
did you hear that prick Mackie call it spot on?
ReplyDeleteGood question. This "feels" like it's rolling over.
ReplyDeleteI bet it closes right at 87.35 because I'm cynical and that's the point everyone is talking about. Diabolically, it's the level at which I wouldn't know what to do.
The market needs a rest (Mackie just said it!) but the rally is "healthy" above 85.30
My 2 cents. (worth 1.5 cents)
Are you calling the EWT wave 2 now that started about 11 am?
ReplyDeleteIf so, then a wave 3 should start today or in am?
I'll give EWT a try to see if I can gain any insight.
I tried to short SUP when Obama was talking about Chrysler, but no shares were available. Look at the delayed reaction... Man.
ReplyDeleteOk... of Wave 5 of Wave 5... Which may have Topped out the market.
ReplyDeleteat 11am we started wave 1 of a downtrend... at 12:57 we started a wave 2 counter-trend rally... Maybe.
wave 2 will be the right shoulder of my head and shoulders.