Saturday, May 31, 2008
weekly sectors
I'll stick with my thesis that we had a relief rally in oil.
Like I keep saying.... It's hard to unwind a trade that has worked for 5 years.
Ugh....
I'm just tired, No bouncie bounci in my regionals to make money on. After burning some commisions, I Layed up... Got long into the close... I usually crash on friday night, and I'm having a tough time.... It isn't being a fun night..... Sometimes it's exausing being a contrarian... But with some trading skills it does pay.....
I just have those nightmares everytime I'm heavily long into the weekend,I spend most my weekend thinking that I'll wake up down 10%..... I guess that is why nobody wants to own stock on friday
I just have those nightmares everytime I'm heavily long into the weekend,I spend most my weekend thinking that I'll wake up down 10%..... I guess that is why nobody wants to own stock on friday
Friday, May 30, 2008
Oh I was going to post about the market
3 months of the xle.... there are 3 trend lines and the 10 day in here... that energy will have to work through...
and Cornet is back on serve..... I still think the trend is agaist her.....
Not good
not the market, market is fine but my little french girl cornet is trying hard to beat herslef in the french open.....
It's enevitable I think... too much pressure for the 18 year old.... or 19 I have no idea how old she is....
It's enevitable I think... too much pressure for the 18 year old.... or 19 I have no idea how old she is....
This feels good for a reversal..... You know how I do this..... Now... I'll probably be wrong today....but... what happens is there are a million deviations in the market.... Like oil going up while the euro going down.... and a bunch of other stuff....
but at one point it starts to feel like everything has lined back up, and spent itself.... adn that things are going to go back to normal patterns..... Oil starts to decline, the xle goes down the xlf starts going up.. very natural order to things.... and that is usually when the turn is.... sometimes even a declining smh will indicate things are still out of whack
Oil... It'a always about oil
... Me I just want to watch the French Open.
What amazes me, is the notion that oil at $140 isn't overpriced..... Goldman can't be wrong... or performing a pump and dump!!!! Not possible!!!
but of course, every uptick energy goes up.... and every other down-tick it goes down... Things will become overpriced.... it will happen, get enough eyes in it, saying it's going to the moon.... suddenly there are no more eyes.
Everybody who wanted to get into oil, got into it when the projections were $200
What amazes me, is the notion that oil at $140 isn't overpriced..... Goldman can't be wrong... or performing a pump and dump!!!! Not possible!!!
but of course, every uptick energy goes up.... and every other down-tick it goes down... Things will become overpriced.... it will happen, get enough eyes in it, saying it's going to the moon.... suddenly there are no more eyes.
Everybody who wanted to get into oil, got into it when the projections were $200
More Oil
$3 run in oil this morning wow!! Brent is .90 higher than Light crude
The dollar has been contiuning it's decline but has caught a bid and we are going to see some sideways action.... then we should move to the 1.53 level....
The dollar has been contiuning it's decline but has caught a bid and we are going to see some sideways action.... then we should move to the 1.53 level....
quote
A house is not a home unless it contains food and fire for the mind as well as the body.
Benjamin Franklin
Benjamin Franklin
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Imaninary portfolio and currency
So, It's messed up... it keeps taking me out of positions.... I have taken every portfolio I have, over the past week and gone net short the dollar euro....
and it keeps taking me out of some of the positions...
and it keeps taking me out of some of the positions...
Kass is in the banks
Kass: I'm Putting My Money in the Banks - TheStreet.com
Kass: I'm Putting My Money in the BanksTheStreet.com -
At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds were long Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, although holdings can change at any time.
I like doug.... but damn... he is usually a few weeks early
Kass: I'm Putting My Money in the BanksTheStreet.com -
At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds were long Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, although holdings can change at any time.
I like doug.... but damn... he is usually a few weeks early
Have I ever mentioned
How madly in Remote blog love I am with Becky......
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 100
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 150
005/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 300
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 200
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 300
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 200
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 300
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 100
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 100
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.58 18.59 100
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.58 18.59 100
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.58 18.59 200
That is the tick data for a regional bank I track.... that is 3k shares traded in virtually the same Second... but so it's not a block trade, and set traders into motion..... it's being spread out
Yesterday there was massive volume... little of it in the 1k block size.....
this is IBank Trading..... Not Swing Traders,... that is how you buy and sell Millions of shares quietly.
and it's buying and selling.
I'm not sure if I dreamed it...... but I swear she said she liked zombie movies....
she had me at zombie movies, baby!!!
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 100
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 150
005/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 300
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 200
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 300
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 200
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 300
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 100
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.59 18.60 100
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.58 18.59 100
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.58 18.59 100
05/29/08 11:20:42 18.59 18.58 18.59 200
That is the tick data for a regional bank I track.... that is 3k shares traded in virtually the same Second... but so it's not a block trade, and set traders into motion..... it's being spread out
Yesterday there was massive volume... little of it in the 1k block size.....
this is IBank Trading..... Not Swing Traders,... that is how you buy and sell Millions of shares quietly.
and it's buying and selling.
I'm not sure if I dreamed it...... but I swear she said she liked zombie movies....
she had me at zombie movies, baby!!!
First on CNBC
Traders talking about capitulation on Regional Banks....
I swear to god they are reading my blog....
I swear to god they are reading my blog....
Inventory draws and builds
Maybe.... my supposition....
for weeks we have had unexpected builds, as the price went up... Because... they were buying and drawing as little as they could.....
With a pull back... the dip buyers.. are actually taking delivery.. because on the pull backs it makes sense to buy and you have a Draw in inventory.. but as it goes up... we get builds.
so the spike is just speculation.. and won't be sustained... and they won't need to buy because they did... in the unexpected draw.. Oil back up $3 and now down a full $1.50
for weeks we have had unexpected builds, as the price went up... Because... they were buying and drawing as little as they could.....
With a pull back... the dip buyers.. are actually taking delivery.. because on the pull backs it makes sense to buy and you have a Draw in inventory.. but as it goes up... we get builds.
so the spike is just speculation.. and won't be sustained... and they won't need to buy because they did... in the unexpected draw.. Oil back up $3 and now down a full $1.50
Nonsense
Well.... Inventory sminventory.... I'm not buying it... the euro tried to revese and that is a morning ful of work un-done in minutes. I have no idea what the data showd... but it's still not a new high, and as I'm typeing it went up 3 bucks, now it's back down one... Euro is working on a fresh low.
Come'on $120 oil
Looking good KREMarket leaders: 47 minutes in Electronics, paper, distillers, retail specialty health-care retail bio-tech, consumer
Laggards: Non Ferrous, steel basic resources, coal precious meals, aluminum, oil companies
The um... in the 1.55 level it is going to hit some resistance... it should work through it... and I swear 1.50, but it may take a few days...... but this may slow the commodity decline... which hasn't happened fast enough in oil......
the good news is that for a while the Euro was flat, and Oil sold off....
Damn
James blake just got beaten in the second round of the french...
I think there are 2 americans left....
if these guys keep playing like this, they should just not show up.
I think there are 2 americans left....
if these guys keep playing like this, they should just not show up.
Tennis
James Blake is trying to lose, to some Frenchman.... at the french open.... Trying to advance the thesis that an American man can not get past the 3rd round...
Oil finally broke $130 and is trying to retrace the move.... I'm not too psyched to see it move down in premarket, I want to see it sell of in the open outcry......
these early sell offs seem like manipulation
Oil finally broke $130 and is trying to retrace the move.... I'm not too psyched to see it move down in premarket, I want to see it sell of in the open outcry......
these early sell offs seem like manipulation
No rest for the Wicket
If all the world hated you, and believed you wicked,
while your own conscience approved you,
and absolved you from guilt,
you would not be without friends.
Charlotte Bronte
Couldn't sleep. I just have to watch the oil Euro trade........ The interesting divergence is that oil goes up on a strong euro, but every time a market opens.... Dip buyers come in and buy it.
the euro is down to 1.557 from 1.567
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern, both voting members of the FOMC in 2008, said they are keeping a close eye on the level of inflation expectations being dialed into financial markets.
"If inflationary developments and, more important, inflation expectations, continue to worsen, I would expect a change of course in monetary policy to occur sooner rather than later, Fisher said in San Francisco.
Rate increases could be made "even in the face of an anemic economic scenario," Fisher told the
while your own conscience approved you,
and absolved you from guilt,
you would not be without friends.
Charlotte Bronte
Couldn't sleep. I just have to watch the oil Euro trade........ The interesting divergence is that oil goes up on a strong euro, but every time a market opens.... Dip buyers come in and buy it.
the euro is down to 1.557 from 1.567
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern, both voting members of the FOMC in 2008, said they are keeping a close eye on the level of inflation expectations being dialed into financial markets.
"If inflationary developments and, more important, inflation expectations, continue to worsen, I would expect a change of course in monetary policy to occur sooner rather than later, Fisher said in San Francisco.
Rate increases could be made "even in the face of an anemic economic scenario," Fisher told the
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Long day
Things got hectic there.... I racked up a ton of commissions today..... but hard not to make money with 1% swings.... I reduced my exposure to regionals today.... That is just Par for the course for a Bottom.....I almost always do that... We have a Terrible day and I refuse to Completely Load up...
and screwed with my top in oil call..... It looked like it.... Some bullshit about Nigeria.... I wouldn't touch oil right now with someone Else's dick....
Not to Conspiracy theory, but oil tops out and we have an epic bear run in regionals....
this stuff is worth it right.....
I was exhausted by the time the day was done...
Exhausted Rant
I'm just in an exhausted rant after trading the shit out of the Regionals today.... Basicly my thesis is that for the most part everything is over owned.... There is nothing I would own with $150 oil.
Oil traded 135 down to 127 then retrace 50%.... The Euro is in a continueing and repeatitly confirmed Downtrend... My Currency trading in the cnbc porfolio that I never have time to make changes to... is up 5-10%...... The reason I do so well is that I can trade it intraday, and I can really trade it.... Damn maybe I should give up on Equities and switch to Currency trading... at least the market is open most the time, instead of silly overnight moves you can't react to....
it's actually nice, Reasonably slow moves.
You can't have it both ways for long, as reported today by our fed charman, they are responsible for 30% of the commodites bubble(this isn't what he said, but it's what he proved(which was math Liesman couldn't do)). and with 10-20% of it being speculation. a 30-40% correction would be good to see.
$800 gold, $90 oil.
Now..... What will be interesting to see is that as the year wears on, and statistics deteriorate.... What will happen ... Will they let the market crash... or will they keep filling the punch bowl?
I pointed out that as usually happens I capitulate at the bottom, and instead of being 75% full on regionals, I get conservative and move it to 50%....
but I have no worries and am willing to trade my way out .....
Oil traded 135 down to 127 then retrace 50%.... The Euro is in a continueing and repeatitly confirmed Downtrend... My Currency trading in the cnbc porfolio that I never have time to make changes to... is up 5-10%...... The reason I do so well is that I can trade it intraday, and I can really trade it.... Damn maybe I should give up on Equities and switch to Currency trading... at least the market is open most the time, instead of silly overnight moves you can't react to....
it's actually nice, Reasonably slow moves.
You can't have it both ways for long, as reported today by our fed charman, they are responsible for 30% of the commodites bubble(this isn't what he said, but it's what he proved(which was math Liesman couldn't do)). and with 10-20% of it being speculation. a 30-40% correction would be good to see.
$800 gold, $90 oil.
Now..... What will be interesting to see is that as the year wears on, and statistics deteriorate.... What will happen ... Will they let the market crash... or will they keep filling the punch bowl?
I pointed out that as usually happens I capitulate at the bottom, and instead of being 75% full on regionals, I get conservative and move it to 50%....
but I have no worries and am willing to trade my way out .....
Exhaustion
I think it's time for my mid market nap.....
that morning trade took it out of me....
but, looks like we have my top in oil....
could be wrong.
After the Euro being so much trouble for days... it's working itself down nicely..
I also think we will see one hell of a fight in oil if we can get back to 120
that morning trade took it out of me....
but, looks like we have my top in oil....
could be wrong.
After the Euro being so much trouble for days... it's working itself down nicely..
I also think we will see one hell of a fight in oil if we can get back to 120
OIl
I didn't say top in oil did I? I thought I was holding off on that.... of course I could be substituting reality for a reality of my own........
But But But..... if oil can get back to 130.30... we should have a top
But But But..... if oil can get back to 130.30... we should have a top
Hard day
It's not nice to see 4 stops go off in 10 minutes... Followed by hours of tough trading....
Capitulation
Sure oil could go up and the whole market could crash... but this is what IMHO capitulation looks like...Could be Wrong....
I own
Way to many banks right now....
It's almost making me sick...
With earnings in the shit banks... Oh Investment/banks next week.... i'm nervous about weekness into next week.
It's almost making me sick...
With earnings in the shit banks... Oh Investment/banks next week.... i'm nervous about weekness into next week.
Oil
That feels like a bottom, Oil services feel like a top.... Euro fels like a top..... Oil seems like it has a little more to go......
$3
From 8pm ET to 10am ET oil has move up $3... It's gone parabolic again... Hopefully finding a top at 129.... Killing the indexes
Nymex
So the Nymex just opened, and Oil shot up .50....
I'd just chucke if the dip buyers in oil, got taken behind the woodshed and beaten over the next week.
Like I said, the trade for 4 years has been "Buy every dip in oil"... it's tough to break.
I'd just chucke if the dip buyers in oil, got taken behind the woodshed and beaten over the next week.
Like I said, the trade for 4 years has been "Buy every dip in oil"... it's tough to break.
Indicator
I tell you what may indicate the oil speculation.... that periodically Light Sweet Crude is cheaper than Brent crude
The Trend is your friend
.... Yes... the data is cooked, but based on expectations even the cooked numbers are better than expected.....
The Trend, is that ..... Well.... the trend is that things are not as bad as we think, and that there is a larger possibility that this will be Long and Shallow... that is the uncrowded trade- that we will muddle ala.... Stagflation..... A muddling economy....
I'm just saying... this is what I'm watching for.... and maybe we will be stuck in the 12500-13500 range.
the real bear trade is a range bound one....
but all Great Bear markets usually start with a huge initial decline......
The Trend, is that ..... Well.... the trend is that things are not as bad as we think, and that there is a larger possibility that this will be Long and Shallow... that is the uncrowded trade- that we will muddle ala.... Stagflation..... A muddling economy....
I'm just saying... this is what I'm watching for.... and maybe we will be stuck in the 12500-13500 range.
the real bear trade is a range bound one....
but all Great Bear markets usually start with a huge initial decline......
I tell you
I'm enjoying the hell out of Forex trading on the CNBC game... Great exercise for my technical skills... Especialy since I bairly have proper charts....
I couldn't resist
I make myself pizza if it comes down to that drastic measurement.
Corey Haim
I've been watching Andromada strain, and A&E has been running adds for "The 2 Correy's"... made me want to puke... but i did watch a few episodes last year..
Nothing like a Train Wreck.
Oil $125
Gold below 900
Euro went all the way up to 1.575 overnight then fell to 1.566
I couldn't leave it with a Corey Haim quote
All men's gains are the fruit of venturing.
Herodotus
Corey Haim
I've been watching Andromada strain, and A&E has been running adds for "The 2 Correy's"... made me want to puke... but i did watch a few episodes last year..
Nothing like a Train Wreck.
Oil $125
Gold below 900
Euro went all the way up to 1.575 overnight then fell to 1.566
I couldn't leave it with a Corey Haim quote
All men's gains are the fruit of venturing.
Herodotus
French Open
... As we know, Tennis is one of my favorite games. The french Open starts end of may, then we have a pause mid June, then Wimbledon, Then The tour, then a pause, then the U.S. Open....
Here is my bitch, there are 2 parts to a great athletes career, becoming a champion, and then dealing with the Decline, and fighting to stay on top, or fighting to come back... It's a very amazing thing.. but quitting when you are top, robs us from watching the second half of a brilliant carriers... And the Real Grace of a Champion.
Also, if you have Dish, the Tennis channel does the coverage of the french.... it starts at 3am, and in the early rounds they run 6 channels, 5 are a raw feed from the courts, so you can catch any match being played, your favorites... as opposed to whatever Sharapova, or Nadal are doing. And it gives you a chance to watch as all the Americans who can't play on clay, get their brains stomped in in the first and second rounds.
That is all
Here is my bitch, there are 2 parts to a great athletes career, becoming a champion, and then dealing with the Decline, and fighting to stay on top, or fighting to come back... It's a very amazing thing.. but quitting when you are top, robs us from watching the second half of a brilliant carriers... And the Real Grace of a Champion.
Also, if you have Dish, the Tennis channel does the coverage of the french.... it starts at 3am, and in the early rounds they run 6 channels, 5 are a raw feed from the courts, so you can catch any match being played, your favorites... as opposed to whatever Sharapova, or Nadal are doing. And it gives you a chance to watch as all the Americans who can't play on clay, get their brains stomped in in the first and second rounds.
That is all
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Transports and Tech lead the way.
Wilshire
In the dow indexes .... Leaders were Airlines, Air Freight, Railroads, Industrial Transportation, Toys, Internet Service, Transportation, Internet Service, Recreational products.
Taking a Beating.....
Precious metals, Wireless Communication, US Oil, US Coal, Chemicals Specialty, Tires.
Euro Dollar
Pummled after hours.... 1.567 right now... it's next even vague support is 1.563.... and looks ripe for a fall to the 1.53 level.
that should pull oil back hard. if it holds up
that should pull oil back hard. if it holds up
LOL
Shows how focused I am....
I'm sitting at my desk, and the market is going nowhere..... I'm running tick data... then raw time and sales data..... I'm like, damn... it's trading in slow motion...
then I realize... Oh!!! the market closed 10 minutes ago..
I'm sitting at my desk, and the market is going nowhere..... I'm running tick data... then raw time and sales data..... I'm like, damn... it's trading in slow motion...
then I realize... Oh!!! the market closed 10 minutes ago..
totaly Bearish.... but
..... Bad side of the trade, Everybody is Short financials and Long Materials.... Everyone is always babeling about fundimentals.... Let me just tell you the fundimentals as I see them..... These are stupid pieces of paper, and Funimentaly not worth the paper they are printed on... Especialy as the "owner" of the company when you are 50th in line when it comes to bankrupcy.... Behind even the bankrupcy for collection... you are just the last of the creditors..... It shouldn't be called stock, it should be called Debt... I'm a 400 share Debt holder, at book.
It's always about the Crowded trade.... With everyone short, and long materials.... the market has no where to go but Up.... and down with materials.... It's just how that game is. Every pull back they are going to buy materials, as the dollar stabalizes and there is demand destruction... materials will not go far this year.
It's always about the Crowded trade.... With everyone short, and long materials.... the market has no where to go but Up.... and down with materials.... It's just how that game is. Every pull back they are going to buy materials, as the dollar stabalizes and there is demand destruction... materials will not go far this year.
bank Thesis
Every bank traded over the past 2 years like it has exposure to CDS squared, and the multitude of Toxic paper that has borderline paper..
that includes the Regional.... but as analysts talk about the "Risk" from just mom and pop mortgages, etc..... it just seems silly to me that that risk is higher than they have traded with the notion of exposure to all that Shit paper....
that includes the Regional.... but as analysts talk about the "Risk" from just mom and pop mortgages, etc..... it just seems silly to me that that risk is higher than they have traded with the notion of exposure to all that Shit paper....
Wow
Lets see how home sales turn out....
the CL.1 contract is down to 129.12 and is now cheaper than Brent.
gold is down $22.....
The euro just tried to catch a bid... but I don't buy it.... should see 1.5700 soon.
All of these are tracking the Euro..
Except Gold, which for some reason is anticipating the moves...must be gold traders being the elite commodity traders.....
all the material/oil/mining ETF's are getting beaten, 130 oil was huge support. and we are a buck below that.....
the CL.1 contract is down to 129.12 and is now cheaper than Brent.
gold is down $22.....
The euro just tried to catch a bid... but I don't buy it.... should see 1.5700 soon.
All of these are tracking the Euro..
Except Gold, which for some reason is anticipating the moves...must be gold traders being the elite commodity traders.....
all the material/oil/mining ETF's are getting beaten, 130 oil was huge support. and we are a buck below that.....
Gold!!
Wealth stays with us a little moment if at all: only our characters are steadfast, not our gold.
Euripides
Gold is down $15 premarket... Freefall...
and oil is down .30, I'd love to see us trade below 130
Euripides
Gold is down $15 premarket... Freefall...
and oil is down .30, I'd love to see us trade below 130
Monday, May 26, 2008
Stupidity
So I read this...... it's about the DUG and how someone expects it to go down with oil....
For those of us able to read, "Know what you are investing in" not how it's calculated, all the etf's aren't perfect, for that matter most indexed spdrs aren't perfect with the way they calculate themselves either.
Funny thing is that the article goes into how ETF's are Calculated, and then talks about how it's the service index, and not oil as an ETF.... Which is wierd....
Because the point should be specifically and clearly "don't buy the wrong thing to short the wrong thing"
Seems clear to me, like don't buy the SDS to short the nasdaq..... I could go on and on, about what not to short to short something else..... Let me just tell you don't buy the skf to short materials either....
WFT with this stuff...
For those of us able to read, "Know what you are investing in" not how it's calculated, all the etf's aren't perfect, for that matter most indexed spdrs aren't perfect with the way they calculate themselves either.
Funny thing is that the article goes into how ETF's are Calculated, and then talks about how it's the service index, and not oil as an ETF.... Which is wierd....
Because the point should be specifically and clearly "don't buy the wrong thing to short the wrong thing"
Seems clear to me, like don't buy the SDS to short the nasdaq..... I could go on and on, about what not to short to short something else..... Let me just tell you don't buy the skf to short materials either....
WFT with this stuff...
hmmmm
One of the Trading Themes I follow is about PEG ratios...... I know.... I know... How does one calculate Growth? Yep, it's Chinese math. (what a disservice to math, and to progressively ridding ourselves of Racist... hyperbole).... Point being...
When you have factors like high deficits, an easy money fed and general stupidity. as headwinds against the Dollar..... When you ease one of these, it means that the Linear regression Changes, and for that to happen it has to correct......
My point is the same as it was with oil, but so as the Dollar, so as all commodities.
Sure, they all can be in a bull market, and continue to decline.... Problem is, they can't decline at as fast a rate... and as oil went hyperbolic... for some reason. it just....
Well, some of the commodities have corrected, and yet As with Oil, the Euro/dollar remains stubbornly strong.
I was doing some Euro Charting, and hopefully we are in a Wave B of a correction.... but... It was making me nervous... Maybe my nervousness is an indicator of a near term high, but seriously... some of this crazy trading....
and maybe the Euro is just following oil...
I don't mean to be a Pollyanna, perma bull... and those who follow me know I'm more interested in making money than being right...
I guess in this case, I am just a little hopeful for our economy.... I don't think it's as desperate as some would have you believe I think things are bad.... but not that bad.
also, yes the fed will cut more... but it's going to be a tough slog for the next year...
When you have factors like high deficits, an easy money fed and general stupidity. as headwinds against the Dollar..... When you ease one of these, it means that the Linear regression Changes, and for that to happen it has to correct......
My point is the same as it was with oil, but so as the Dollar, so as all commodities.
Sure, they all can be in a bull market, and continue to decline.... Problem is, they can't decline at as fast a rate... and as oil went hyperbolic... for some reason. it just....
Well, some of the commodities have corrected, and yet As with Oil, the Euro/dollar remains stubbornly strong.
I was doing some Euro Charting, and hopefully we are in a Wave B of a correction.... but... It was making me nervous... Maybe my nervousness is an indicator of a near term high, but seriously... some of this crazy trading....
and maybe the Euro is just following oil...
I don't mean to be a Pollyanna, perma bull... and those who follow me know I'm more interested in making money than being right...
I guess in this case, I am just a little hopeful for our economy.... I don't think it's as desperate as some would have you believe I think things are bad.... but not that bad.
also, yes the fed will cut more... but it's going to be a tough slog for the next year...
You know me, I can't quit
Sunday at 2pm or global trading trading starts... they don't care about memorial day...
Sweet Crude is trading 132.75.... that isn't good... What we want to see is it fall through and test 120, not going to happen in electronic trading though.
I haven't been tracking it, which obviously is a mistake. but the Euro is very strong, and in may it started trading up... we got damn near all time highs again....
Maybe this is just it testing a lower high, but.... That surprises me.... I'd love to see those Europeans trade Brent back to 130........
Sweet Crude is trading 132.75.... that isn't good... What we want to see is it fall through and test 120, not going to happen in electronic trading though.
I haven't been tracking it, which obviously is a mistake. but the Euro is very strong, and in may it started trading up... we got damn near all time highs again....
Maybe this is just it testing a lower high, but.... That surprises me.... I'd love to see those Europeans trade Brent back to 130........
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Where do we go from here.
The Stagflation trade...... This should be a "Real Bear Market", not one of those stupid 3 month bear markets, or what ever some stupid pundit calls it.... Great Bear markets are markets where the indexes go nowhere for YEARS, where we are range bound and investors get tired of stocks either going nowhere or going down. A Bear isn't just a declining market.
This being caused by crushing inflation, sucking up every bit of profit to be found, through Higher input costs by labor and materials.... We also should see an increase in Unionisation and socialization, all of this caused buy workers slowly getting screwed buy how poorly this economy has been running, and needing to feed their families, and intervention being needed to demand fair wages from Corporations, in an economic environment where their pay doesn't go as far as it used to.... Thank you Federal Reserve, and the Spector of Deflation.
I still hold my theory that the decline will be much slower, that the Feb decline, maybe 2 steps forward 3 steps back kind of thing. and instead of that happening in 30 days, it taking 3 months. The "Big Recession" has to prove itself, this shouldn't be as much a game of supposition.. but one of playing the numbers..
But .... Who knows......
This being caused by crushing inflation, sucking up every bit of profit to be found, through Higher input costs by labor and materials.... We also should see an increase in Unionisation and socialization, all of this caused buy workers slowly getting screwed buy how poorly this economy has been running, and needing to feed their families, and intervention being needed to demand fair wages from Corporations, in an economic environment where their pay doesn't go as far as it used to.... Thank you Federal Reserve, and the Spector of Deflation.
I still hold my theory that the decline will be much slower, that the Feb decline, maybe 2 steps forward 3 steps back kind of thing. and instead of that happening in 30 days, it taking 3 months. The "Big Recession" has to prove itself, this shouldn't be as much a game of supposition.. but one of playing the numbers..
But .... Who knows......
If I were long trading the Dug
If the pace of the sell off maintains, No worries... but I would suspect it could catch a bid at the 30 level which is roughly the 50% retrace of the past 2 weeks. At that point I'd imagine it will catch a bid for a day or 2 and then leg down again....My imagination says sell off tusday and then the sell off stops on wed or thursday. Catches a bid.. maybe the whole market goes up on friday and monday... and at that point, maybe the whole market hits my 1450 SPX... "top" Then maybe we stall and sell off....... remember week after next is the NFP week.... I'm suspecting a revision on april and maybe a larger decline in the NFP, back to a -60k - -80K... but I'm not good at guessing that number..... but it's not like the market believed the -20K last time.
Remember, the market is actually very stupid... Remember "Weak Dollar will save us".
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Talking to the wind
I know that I just sort of bang on the keyboard here like a random monkey, with little regard to puncuation, spelling, or effective communication.......
Week before last, I mentioned that we were much more bullish than I suspected. Reason why was because somewhere where that red line was, that 20 some odd day period with almost no correction... I expected that we would break that Yellow trade channel, and 3 weeks ago when we just touched it, and rebounded I was sprised, and expeced that to be our 4th wave correction.
Week before last, I mentioned that we were much more bullish than I suspected. Reason why was because somewhere where that red line was, that 20 some odd day period with almost no correction... I expected that we would break that Yellow trade channel, and 3 weeks ago when we just touched it, and rebounded I was sprised, and expeced that to be our 4th wave correction.
Now here we are, and we have now hit that blue trade channel... which is consistant with last week being the 4th wave of this Trend, Finaly Breaking that yellow trade channel. We moved to 6 and 7 day trends, and are now back to 5 or 4 day. Which increases my suspicion of bearishness soon.
Bad news on this thesis is that I didn't see great indicators of acumulation. We also have a shortened week next week, we also are still in the crappy downtrend from last week
The financials are very beaten down, Seems like a nice rally in financials, consumer maybe Homies. It seems ripe for a rally...
also, I could be wrong.
Tale of the Tape.....
10:45
3 sectors scraped their bottom at roughly
9:50, 10:45, 11:15
KRE(regional banks)
XHB(Home Builders)
XRT(Retail)
11:30
BioTech(XBI)
SMH-Semi Conductors
Oil and Gas Exploration XOP
Energy(XLE)
Materials(xlb)
That Blue line is the VWAP, the higher it is above the stronger it was on the day.
1:00
Consumer Discretionary xly
xlk- Tech
xli-(Industrials)
I also am showing the 10 minute charts, in the above charts to show the MACD divergence.
2:00pm
XLP -consumer staples
If you notice, the xlp played with it's Vwap all day... and did bottom more at 10 than at 2pm.. overall it was a flight to safety. One of the best sectors today
Health Care XLV
and finally the XLF.
The real dogs on the day continue to be Materials and Energy, I was looking through. some message boards... it's a classic every idiot rushed into materials and oil. and now it's all ready to start legging down. Never Chase a Trade.......
Friday, May 23, 2008
Good news
In another 30 minutes I get to start drinking.....
I havn't payed attention to refinary usage, but It doesn't seem like the refinaries are either interested in buying oil, or in refining it into gas.
I just looked it up.... In a market with "high demand" on oil and gas... Utilization was down 5% last year, and another 2% this year Overall we are down 10% in utilization using the median value of the past 10 years....
Median value is roughly the mid 90's and we are in the mid 80's.
the fact they arn't refining, sugjests that the lack of production may be intentional...
Point is.... My opinion is that the oil and refining companies are trying to force this country into a crisis so we let them do anything they want.
Classic Freidman economics
I havn't payed attention to refinary usage, but It doesn't seem like the refinaries are either interested in buying oil, or in refining it into gas.
I just looked it up.... In a market with "high demand" on oil and gas... Utilization was down 5% last year, and another 2% this year Overall we are down 10% in utilization using the median value of the past 10 years....
Median value is roughly the mid 90's and we are in the mid 80's.
the fact they arn't refining, sugjests that the lack of production may be intentional...
Point is.... My opinion is that the oil and refining companies are trying to force this country into a crisis so we let them do anything they want.
Classic Freidman economics
short covering rally
I think into the close we are going to get a short covering rally in everything.... I think a lot of people short the market are just going to clear the positions and see how things go on Monday..
The market feels Tired and Depressed, exhausted...... I think on Tuesday people will come back refreshed and ready to fight again...
The market feels Tired and Depressed, exhausted...... I think on Tuesday people will come back refreshed and ready to fight again...
DUG
we could se a solid counter rally here in the DUG with all the short positons taking profits here end of the day...
not to be an ass
I try and catch trading with TK, but I do sort of use him as a contrary indicator... When he is scared I think the market has a good chance to rally.
in other news... I just made a couple of my accounts some money short the euro... need to take the profits.
also the market is trying to rally in the face of a rally intraday in oil...
in other news... I just made a couple of my accounts some money short the euro... need to take the profits.
also the market is trying to rally in the face of a rally intraday in oil...
SPY by the day
this is a 30% retrace so far... I still sort of stick to my guns that this is just a 4th wave sell off.Oil again looks to make a new low in the next bit
But..... The Euro is strong..... And I just don't see us catching much of a bid the rest of the day..
I just think Nobody wants stock... into the long weekend.... Knowing oil... DubYa will invaid Iran over the weekend.... or iran will invade Iraq...
I just think Nobody wants stock... into the long weekend.... Knowing oil... DubYa will invaid Iran over the weekend.... or iran will invade Iraq...
Hopefully
This chart holds up to updates for the rest of the day..... The Beverage index being up is all BUD. and it has hauled some of it's friends up with it.... Transports down big, Coal down big...
Coal and Transports and oil will be what I'll start looking for Soon....to go long..
Initial Claims
I hate this chart..... It's just not very clear As the market Refuses to get traction..... I just think that nobody wants to buy stock today... and they don't trust the sell off in oil.... and For Something that goes up at the slightest Breaze, it's still tough to get it down... or make the market believe it...
But Jobless Claims... What is interesting is that in Late April we had a huge uptick, then we got a comparable downtick in early may.... Then it "seemed" that we got some relief. But with revisions We never actually got relief it's maintained the same rate... I'd look for a sizable increase in the NFP this month... Like back to the -60k or -80K
Using My guesstimating Chartastrology Metrics.
There is the Libor Chart
Good to see this.....
Besides the price of oil.... Which as I've stated is the biggest headwind to the market IMHO. There is no indicator that I see that says we need to Retest the lows... Employment is fine... or showing a Mild recession(which is priced in) even if you think the numbers are more like 200K... That is normal recession...
I continue to believe that if the price of oil can hit $100 we could see a LONG and Shallow Recession... Which means range bound for the rest of the year... Still we could see investors get sick of being range bound and run out of the market.... But...
I'm just saying..
oil is off $3
So.... here I am managing my portfolio... and my stupid CNBC one.... This is the way it works.... I'm too busy with my own crap to mess around with it.... overnight I was doing well with my Currency trades Up like 2K....
then the market opens and I'm too busy to keep track.... Now I'm down 2K...
I sit here..... should I manage the Fake one, or my real one....
Trading the Forex is good for my chart skills... Especially since my Forex charts suck so bad it's hard to read.... But if I register for a temp Forex account and get decent data... it's just one step closer to 24/7 Forex Trading... becoming a Shut in... having a heart attack... and rotting here in my chair for a couple weeks.
Oil is off 3.40 now
Oil selling off
133.71 was the high.
it's now 131.84
2 bucks off...
Brent is off the same ammount...roughtly but is now cheaper than Sweet.
it's now 131.84
2 bucks off...
Brent is off the same ammount...roughtly but is now cheaper than Sweet.
AS TK Says... I think we are finding some traction. of course that is what I'm saying... he is Bearish...
Challenged
I love how challenged we are....
Here we are in a recession... and the slow down happened last august.
now everyone says "well it was predicted that we would have a recession at $50... and it's never happened."
In august oil went above $80 and we have had a deeper and deeper slow down the higher oil has gone.
Cognitive Dissonance?
at the start of a recession and $130 oil.....
Here we are in a recession... and the slow down happened last august.
now everyone says "well it was predicted that we would have a recession at $50... and it's never happened."
In august oil went above $80 and we have had a deeper and deeper slow down the higher oil has gone.
Cognitive Dissonance?
at the start of a recession and $130 oil.....
Dollar Euro
We have a great drop in the Euro developing right now... and oil is trying to follow it down.
Beverages and reinsurance.... only things up......
Beverages and reinsurance.... only things up......
Congress
Suppose you were an idiot, and suppose you were a member of Congress; but I repeat myself. Mark Twain
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Dow indexes
I love this chart, but since the Chart is unreadable I'll give you the spread sheet. In green if you don't follow are the Percentages each index was up or down....
Energy trade
Here oil is at the day's low.... Very different from the past weeks..... The intraday record was 137 yesterday... why do they keep saying 135???? sorry I digress...
this is the tough part of this trad.... Oil at its low and oil stocks are trying to rally.... and it's holding the rest of the market down.... Hopefully this is a final orgasm for the xle.... but the EWT says one more high... seems parabolic to me... so... that and this move isn't' confirmed by the oil price....
Hopefully the trend continues..... the down trend in oil.. I took a short position against oil again I'm just day trading it... if it hits big, I'll hold some again.... But that was a nice 5 legged move it's a normal midday correction.... and this wasn't confirmed by moves in oil which after a small correction is still in a down trend.... If oil falls, expect a larger correction at 120
That wilshire index chart
I fixed it and it's updating for the time being...
the trade will be short materials/including oil... and that is possibly reflected in that chart... I'd like to see a week of it, take us to my 2 more new highs.... well, it will be 3 new highs.... 2 fast new highs, a pull back then 2 more...
maybe..
and long other stuff....
the reason I'm pro financials is because people will need regional banks, and they won't need consumer stuff... so there will be some divergence there.... and the Ibanks and Uber Banks... well they are too strapped to loan money for the next 2 years....
the trade will be short materials/including oil... and that is possibly reflected in that chart... I'd like to see a week of it, take us to my 2 more new highs.... well, it will be 3 new highs.... 2 fast new highs, a pull back then 2 more...
maybe..
and long other stuff....
the reason I'm pro financials is because people will need regional banks, and they won't need consumer stuff... so there will be some divergence there.... and the Ibanks and Uber Banks... well they are too strapped to loan money for the next 2 years....
Ethanol
.... I've said I'm pro ethanol, besides the fact that it reduces Down ticks on or GDP, and replaces them with Upticks.....
IE for every $5 in Ethanol we produce, it's $5 in this economy, and $5 that doesn't leave this economy...
And, I'd love to see more farming and mining replace telemarketing as our Median Job in this economy.
IE for every $5 in Ethanol we produce, it's $5 in this economy, and $5 that doesn't leave this economy...
And, I'd love to see more farming and mining replace telemarketing as our Median Job in this economy.
So
..... I'm not against oil.... or the oil trade.... I just think it's over done... a $10 change in oil is big... and $20 from spring to Summer is normal... maybe even $40... 
Here is the XLE for the past 3 years.... and as insane as oil has been... based on either of these trends the XLE should be 75-80.... with a stronger dollar, and less demand from us fat Americans... Which is happening.... Everyone I know drives less... I live in rural America, where we drive A LOT... and we have completely cut back. With the stronger dollar, and less consumption buy us... this should come back to 75-80 at least... this should/could be the strongest correction in this index To Date... because there is now some evidence for it to come back..... and for it to have gone hyperbolic over that past weeks... just tells me that with short covering and some of the big players doing pump and dumps.... it's going to correct...
But... Besides day trading I'm hesitant to put my money where my mouth is....
Take it for what it's worth....
Damn Bloomberg is so much better than cnbc... I actually get something from bloomberg every once in a while..
We were trying to triple oil prices in a year.... and it's not like there is an oil embargo...
140 is just too much.... I know I'm not Goldman, but 120 should be our high end... and then toy with 130 over the summer....
and a 200 thesis would take next summer.
Here is the XLE for the past 3 years.... and as insane as oil has been... based on either of these trends the XLE should be 75-80.... with a stronger dollar, and less demand from us fat Americans... Which is happening.... Everyone I know drives less... I live in rural America, where we drive A LOT... and we have completely cut back. With the stronger dollar, and less consumption buy us... this should come back to 75-80 at least... this should/could be the strongest correction in this index To Date... because there is now some evidence for it to come back..... and for it to have gone hyperbolic over that past weeks... just tells me that with short covering and some of the big players doing pump and dumps.... it's going to correct...
But... Besides day trading I'm hesitant to put my money where my mouth is....
Take it for what it's worth....
Damn Bloomberg is so much better than cnbc... I actually get something from bloomberg every once in a while..
We were trying to triple oil prices in a year.... and it's not like there is an oil embargo...
140 is just too much.... I know I'm not Goldman, but 120 should be our high end... and then toy with 130 over the summer....
and a 200 thesis would take next summer.
Good stuff
So... Currency Trading is open on the cnbc million dollar challenge....
and with all systems being down, and being barely able to trade my actual portfolio.... I've gone from the top .5% to the top 3%... If I can get a rally here in financials I should get back up there...
I'm not doing the high beta stuff.... It's just very hard for me to play that game....
Currently all portfolios are Long the US. Peso....
this will give me something to do when I can't sleep...
which is why I don't trade currency and never will... I have enough trouble sleeping already...
and with all systems being down, and being barely able to trade my actual portfolio.... I've gone from the top .5% to the top 3%... If I can get a rally here in financials I should get back up there...
I'm not doing the high beta stuff.... It's just very hard for me to play that game....
Currently all portfolios are Long the US. Peso....
this will give me something to do when I can't sleep...
which is why I don't trade currency and never will... I have enough trouble sleeping already...
Wilshire index
Always look for the Time on these charts... that is your Assurance that it's updating...
Dug
The white is the morning low on the DUG.... and then in blue... What looks like a higher low...One could change the stop to the lower high.... but the best thing to do is to wait till we get a higher high to change the stop..... frome white to blue..
This whole market is trading off of oil price..... Oil retraces 50% the market retraces 50%....
Asuming this uptrend maintains... it will stop when oil stops going down...
or the xlf hits 29.
.......
A house is not a home unless it contains food and fire for the mind as well as the body.
And of course You all know me.... what have I been loading up on..... Regional Banks